📈 COIN WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $287.59 (0.66:1 R/R)

🏢 Company Overview

Coinbase Global, Inc. | Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Financial – Data & Stock Exchanges

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This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for COIN. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-16, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to COIN’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

📊 Key Data Points

• Symbol: COIN
• Analysis Date: 2025-12-16
• Current Price: $252.61
• 1-Month High: $284.74 (reached on 2025-12-09 00:00:00)
• Distance from High: 11.3%

🛡️ Regime & Gating

• Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
• Disabled Lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Δentry|=0.15 <= 6.82))
• Probability Floor: 35%
• Notes: No gating notes
• Badge: Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION | Disabled: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Δentry|=0.15 <= 6.82)) | Prob floor: 35%

📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

• Short-term (5 days): Fast pullback (-8.2% in 5 days)
• Medium-term (3 months): Downtrend (-21.1% in 3 months)
• Long-term (12 months): Downtrend (-18.7% in 12 months)

Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-12-10 00:00:00 to 2025-12-16, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: FALLING at FAST pace.

📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).

Current RSI Status

🟢 Neutral Zone

Metric	Value	Interpretation
RSI (14-day)	38.3	Neutral
Signal	🟢 Neutral	RSI at 38.3 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity

Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for COIN without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals

Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.

Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.

⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 03 – Dec 16, 2025))

⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (bearish_trend_with_rejection)

Signal	Status	Value
🔵 Range Compression	Normal	0.000
🔵 Volume Activity	Normal	0.000
🔵 Wick Patterns	3 rejections vs 3 absorptions – balanced battle	3 rejections / 3 absorptions
🔵 Candlestick Patterns	Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops)	8 patterns

Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a bearish trend with rejection, but it lacks strong conviction due to the neutral wick and candlestick patterns. This setup is not high-conviction, suggesting traders should exercise caution and look for additional signals before making decisions.

Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).

Pattern Formation Timeline

Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🔴 Shooting Star: Dec 04 (bearish reversal signals)
– 🟢 Hammer: Dec 11 (bullish reversal signals)
– ⚪ Doji: Dec 04, Dec 05 (indecision)
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Dec 05, Dec 08, Dec 10, Dec 16 (indecision)

Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Dec 04, Dec 10, Dec 16 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Dec 05, Dec 08, Dec 11 (buying support)

Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 03 – Dec 16, 2025) for timing signals.

📉 Volatility and Market Context

COIN’s price movements are classified as “Very High (speculative / event-driven)” with an annualized volatility of 86.3% and a typical daily price swing of 5.44% ($13.74). This means COIN can move about 5.44% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.

• 🎯 Relative Volatility: COIN’s current volatility ranks in the 100th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means COIN’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 100% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
• 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $678.87, 0.6% above its 50-day moving average ($674.79). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.

Metric	Value	Explanation
📊 Stock Volatility	86.3% (annualized)	Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward
📅 Daily Volatility (σ)	5.44% ($13.74)	Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context
🎯 Volatility vs. SPY	100th percentile	higher risk than the market
📈 Market Trend	neutral (0.6% vs. SMA50)	Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk.
⚖️ Current Setup R/R	0.66:1	Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section)

🎯 Lane R/R Analysis (RFC-029)

COIN offers different risk/reward profiles depending on entry timing. Each lane represents a strategic price level for entry, with its own risk/reward ratio and probability based on historical performance:

Lane	Entry	Target	R/R	Probability	Expectancy	Best For
🚀 Breakout	$287.59	$293.28	0.66:1	65%	0.08	Momentum entry with close-based confirmation
📉 Deep Pullback	$244.88	$287.59	0.52:1	55%	-0.16	Conservative entry at optimal buy zone
⚖️ Current (Baseline)	$252.61	$293.28	0.66:1	47%	-0.22	Baseline only (not an entry lane)

Ranked by Expectancy:
– 🥇 Breakout 🚀: 0.08 EV
– 🥈 Pullback 📉: -0.16 EV
– 🥉 Current (Baseline) ⚖️: -0.22 EV

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $287.59

💡 Best Current Opportunity: 🚀 Breakout Lane (0.08 expectancy) – Wait for breakout confirmation above $287.59 for momentum entry with 0.66:1 R/R and 65% success probability.

🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones

This analysis uses COIN’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($284.74). These zones are adjusted for COIN’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.2 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).

Zone	Distance (%)	Price Level	Trading Insight
🔴 Resistance	2.4	$277.91	Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely
🟡 Caution	6.1	$267.37	Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals
🟢 Sweet Spot	14.0	$244.88	Optimal buy zone with 39.0% success rate
💎 Value	21.9	$222.38	Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone
🔵 Deep Value	25.0	$213.56	Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts
⚠️ Extreme Value	30.0	$199.32	Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst
🚨 Crash Zone	>30%	Below extreme	Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor

📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When COIN was specifically at 14.0% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 39.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.3:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).

Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.

🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)

Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.

This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when COIN was in similar price contexts:

📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 55.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress

📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 65.0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets

Metric	Value	Notes
Binary Success	55.0%	95 samples – moderate confidence
Graded Success	65.0%	95 samples – moderate confidence
Improvement	+10.0 points	Graded method captures partial gains

📊 Confidence Breakdown (42.8/100 – Low):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 64.2 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.6/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.69)
– Consistency: 2.2/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes

🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 95 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 64.2 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 75.7% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 72.1% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)

📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $COIN doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.

💰 Price Targets and Risk Management

These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on COIN’s daily volatility (ATR).

Target Type	Price Level	Notes
🟢 Optimal Buy	$244.88	Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward.
🟢 Good Value	$222.38	Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback.
🟢 Deep Value	$213.56	Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news).

| 🔴 Reduce Position | $267.37 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $277.91 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $287.59 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $293.28 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 10-25% (Sweet spot) (Current price) | Low confidence due to TRANSITION_ZONE. |

Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).

⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)

Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.

Risk/Reward Analysis

🔴 Quality Assessment: Poor (0.66:1)

Component	Value	Notes
Entry Price	$252.61	Current market price for COIN
Target Price	$293.28	Projected resistance or breakout level
Stop Loss	$190.79	Risk management exit point
Potential Reward	$40.67	Target – Entry
Potential Risk	$61.82	Entry – Stop
R/R Ratio	0.66:1	Reward divided by Risk

Calculation Breakdown

Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)

Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $293.28 (target) – $252.61 (entry) = $40.67
2. Risk = $252.61 (entry) – $190.79 (stop) = $61.82
3. Ratio = $40.67 / $61.82 = 0.66:1

Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($190.79)
14-Day ATR: $13.64 (~5.4% of entry price) – stop is 4.5x ATR for volatility adjustment

💡 Interpretation

A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.

Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.66:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.66% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).

Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.

🎯 Dual-Lane Analysis (RFC-028)

The analysis identifies three distinct trading lanes with different entry strategies:

🛡️ Regime Gating:
– Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
– Probability floor: 35%
– Disabled lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Δentry|=0.15 <= 6.82))

📊 Lanes Ranked by Expectancy (EV per 1R):
🥇 Breakout Lane 🚀: 0.08 expectancy
🥈 Pullback Lane 📉: -0.16 expectancy
🥉 Current Lane ⚖️: -0.22 expectancy

Detailed Comparison Table (ACTIVE lanes only; disabled lanes omitted):

Lane	Entry	Target	Stop	Reward	Risk	R/R Ratio	Probability	Expectancy
🚀 Breakout	$287.59	$293.28	$278.96	$5.69	$8.63	0.66:1	65%	0.08
📉 Deep Pullback	$244.88	$287.59	$163.31	$42.71	$81.57	0.52:1	55%	-0.16

💡 Recommendation:
🚀 Wait for breakout above $287.59 – Breakout Lane offers the best risk-adjusted return with 0.08 expectancy.

📐 Expectancy Calculation (EV per 1R): EV = p × R − (1 − p)
– Higher EV = better average edge per unit risk (1R)
– Breakeven win rate: p = 1 / (1 + R)
– Pullback Lane: Wider stops, better entry, potentially higher R
– Breakout Lane: Tighter stops, confirmation required, potentially higher p
– Current Lane: Immediate entry, typically lower edge vs planned entries

Note: The summary table at the top of the report shows simplified lane comparison; this section provides full details including stop-loss levels.

🎯 Current Analysis

Current Position: COIN is BETWEEN ZONES at $252.61 (above Sweet Spot $244.88, below Caution $267.37)

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $287.59

📋 Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: HOLD (LOW) — Maintain exposure per the broader trend; manage risk with stops and sizing.
New Entry: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK (LOW) — Entry guidance follows the current-zone recommendation.

🔍 Confidence: LOW

📈 Historical Success: 0.65

⚖️ Risk/Reward: 0.66

📋 Trading Scenarios

Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $287.59

🎯 FINAL_ACTION

Primary Setup: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $287.59

🚀 Breakout Entry (FINAL_ACTION)

Entry trigger: Breakout > $287.59 (confirm with volume)
Targets: $293.28 → $307.94
Stop: $278.96 (tight; breakout invalidation)

Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to first target

📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis

Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure

📉 Current Trend: Down
10-Day Net Change: -26,775,938
Interpretation: Bearish – OBV declining over 10 days (-26,775,938)

OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).

VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence

🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals

Timeframe	Signal	Weight	Interpretation
5-Day	Neutral	High	Immediate institutional positioning
14-Day	Neutral	Medium	Swing accumulation/distribution
30-Day	Neutral	Medium	Trend-level volume commitment

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.

Volume Activity Metrics

⬇️ Relative Volume: 0.70x
vs. 20-Day Average: -30.0%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 0.99 (Neutral)

ℹ️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis

Severity: Mild
Type: Bearish Confirmation (confidence -5%)

Signals:
– ⚠️ Mild bearish confirmation: Price and OBV both declining
– ⚠️ EXTREME VOL WATCH: Price falling -8.8% with OBV declining -2.4x (≥0.10× avg) in ≥95th percentile volatility

Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.

💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones

Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent

Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.

📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis

Current MA Positioning

MA Period	Price	Distance	Slope	Direction	Support Quality
SMA10	$268.69	+6.4%	-0.02%	➡️ Flat	–
SMA20	$262.77	+4.0%	-2.31%	📉 Falling	–
SMA50	$303.99	+20.3%	-3.23%	📉 Falling	–
SMA200	$283.72	+12.3%	+0.46%	📈 Rising	Weak

🎯 Detected MA Clusters

STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA20 + SMA10 converging at $265.73 (5.2% above current price)
– 2 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: STRONG
– Interpretation: Price currently below cluster resistance. Potential pullback zone if rejected.

💡 MA Cluster Alignment (Governed by FINAL_ACTION)

FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $287.59
Alignment: Neutral
Note: No clear MA pullback targets detected; treat MA signals as context only.

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🔄 Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)

Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.

Peers Analyzed: 5 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)

Target vs. Sector Performance

Metric	COIN	Sector Avg	Relative	Status
5-Day Change	-8.17%	-1.40%	-6.77pp	📉 Underperforming
10-Day Change	-8.78%	+1.17%	-9.95pp	📉 Underperforming

Peer Momentum Breakdown

Ticker	5-Day	10-Day
RIOT	+1.72%	+9.26%
MARA	-0.30%	-0.20%
V	-2.44%	+0.60%
MA	-2.82%	-0.41%
PYPL	-3.16%	-3.39%

💡 Interpretation

⚠️ Company-specific weakness: COIN is lagging peers, indicating potential company-level issues or missed opportunities relative to sector.

Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The selection of peers is based on companies that have significant exposure to the cryptocurrency market, either through direct trading and mining operations or through strategic investments and product offerings. The confidence level is based on the degree of exposure and the strategic importance of the cryptocurrency business to the company.

💼 Investment Considerations

• 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $222.38 (value zone) to $213.56 (deep value) with wide stops ($163.31) to manage downside. Current price at $252.61 is 11.3% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
• ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $287.59 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Financial – Data & Stock Exchanges sector trends.
• 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but COIN’s high relative volatility (100th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.

🔬 Methodology

This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies COIN’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where COIN historically breaks out or reverses, using 1176 days of data (since ~2021).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares COIN’s 30-day volatility (86.3%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 100th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.2 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (0.6% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 5.44% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.3:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.

The analysis is robust (1176 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.

🏢 About Coinbase Global, Inc.

Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Financial – Data & Stock Exchanges

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable developers to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delawar…

📊 Understanding Expectancy

What is Expectancy (EV)? Expectancy represents your average profit per unit of risk (1R) across many similar trades.

Definition (per 1R):
– EV = p × R − (1 − p)
– p = win probability
– R = reward-to-risk multiple (e.g., R=2.0 means +2R on wins, −1R on losses)

Breakeven win rate:
– p = 1 / (1 + R) → for the BREAKOUT lane here, breakeven is 60%

Worked example with COIN (BREAKOUT lane)

Assume 100 trades, risking $100 each (total risk = $10000):
– Expected win profit: p × N × $risk × R = $4290
– Expected losses: (1−p) × N × $risk = −$3500
– Expected net: EV × N × $risk = $790
– Expected per trade: EV × $risk = $8

How to use this: The system recommends the lane with the highest EV because, statistically, it offers the best risk-adjusted edge (per 1R). Individual outcomes will vary.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like COIN involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Report generated on January 04, 2026