📈 WHR WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $136.84 (0.66:1 R/R)
🏢 Company Overview
Whirlpool Corporation | Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for WHR. Using historical price data up to 2026-01-03, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 52-week highs, tailored to WHR’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
📊 Key Data Points
- Symbol: WHR
- Analysis Date: 2026-01-03
- Current Price: $74.5
- 52-Week High: $135.49 (reached on 2025-01-27 00:00:00)
- Distance from High: 45.0%
🛡️ Regime & Gating
- Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
- Disabled Lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (probability 0% < 35% floor), PULLBACK (probability 0% < 35% floor), BREAKOUT (probability 10% < 35% floor), CURRENT (probability 0% < 35% floor)
- Probability Floor: 35%
- Notes: No gating notes
- Badge: Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION | Disabled: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (probability 0% < 35% floor), PULLBACK (probability 0% < 35% floor), BREAKOUT (probability 10% < 35% floor), CURRENT (probability 0% < 35% floor) | Prob floor: 35%
📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
- Short-term (5 days): Mild rally (+3.3% in 5 days)
- Medium-term (3 months): Mild downtrend (-3.4% in 3 months)
- Long-term (12 months): Bear market (-34.9% in 12 months)
Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-12-26 00:00:00 to 2026-01-03, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: MIXED at NORMAL pace.
📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).
Current RSI Status
🟢 Neutral Zone
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 51.1 | Neutral |
| Signal | 🟢 Neutral | RSI at 51.1 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity |
Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for WHR without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals
Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.
Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.
⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 18 – Jan 02, 2026))
⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (moderate_microstructure_edge)
| Signal | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Range Compression | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Volume Activity | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Wick Patterns | 2 upper rejections vs 1 lower absorptions – selling pressure at highs | 2 rejections / 1 absorptions |
| 🔵 Candlestick Patterns | Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops) | 5 patterns |
Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a moderate microstructure edge, suggesting this is not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity further support a neutral stance, as there is no significant volatility contraction to signal an imminent breakout.
Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).
Pattern Formation Timeline
Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🔴 Shooting Star: Dec 29 (bearish reversal signals)
– ⚪ Doji: Dec 18 (indecision)
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Dec 18, Dec 26, Dec 31 (indecision)
Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Dec 18, Dec 29 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Dec 31 (buying support)
Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 18 – Jan 02, 2026) for timing signals.
📉 Volatility and Market Context
WHR’s price movements are classified as “High (Growth stocks, small-caps)” with an annualized volatility of 37.5% and a typical daily price swing of 2.36% ($1.76). This means WHR can move about 2.36% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.
- 🎯 Relative Volatility: WHR’s current volatility ranks in the 75.0th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means WHR’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 75.0% of historical trading days, indicating typical market risk.
- 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $683.17, 0.7% above its 50-day moving average ($678.74). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
| Metric | Value | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 📊 Stock Volatility | 37.5% (annualized) | Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward |
| 📅 Daily Volatility (σ) | 2.36% ($1.76) | Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context |
| 🎯 Volatility vs. SPY | 75.0th percentile | typical market risk |
| 📈 Market Trend | neutral (0.7% vs. SMA50) | Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk. |
| ⚖️ Current Setup R/R | 10.58:1 | Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section) |
🎯 Three-Lane R/R Analysis (RFC-029)
WHR offers different risk/reward profiles depending on entry timing. Each lane represents a strategic price level for entry, with its own risk/reward ratio and probability based on historical performance:
| Lane | Entry | Target | R/R | Probability | Expectancy | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Shallow Pullback | $72.26 | $136.84 | 30.32:1 | 0% | 0.0 | Catching moves without deep retracement |
| 📉 Deep Pullback | $126.01 | $136.84 | 0.18:1 | 0% | 0.0 | Conservative entry at optimal buy zone |
| 🚀 Breakout | $136.84 | $139.55 | 0.66:1 | 10% | 0.07 | Momentum entry with close-based confirmation |
Ranked by Expectancy:
– 🥇 Breakout 🚀: 0.07 expectancy
– 🥈 Shallow Pullback 📈: 0.00 expectancy
– 🥉 Pullback 📉: 0.00 expectancy
– 🏅 Current ⚖️: 0.00 expectancy
🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $136.84
💡 Best Current Opportunity: 🚀 Breakout Lane (0.07 expectancy) – Wait for breakout confirmation above $136.84 for momentum entry with 0.66:1 R/R and 10% success probability (High variance / advanced traders only (probability < 35%)).
🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones
This analysis uses WHR’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 52-week high ($135.49). These zones are adjusted for WHR’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).
| Zone | Distance (%) | Price Level | Trading Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Resistance | 2.6 | $131.97 | Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely |
| 🟡 Caution | 4.5 | $129.39 | Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals |
| 🟢 Sweet Spot | 7.0 | $126.01 | Optimal buy zone with 57.0% success rate |
| 💎 Value | 9.5 | $122.62 | Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone |
| 🔵 Deep Value | 12.5 | $118.55 | Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts |
| ⚠️ Extreme Value | 13.9 | $116.66 | Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst |
| 🚨 Crash Zone | >30% | Below extreme | Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor |
📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When WHR was specifically at 7.0% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 57.0% of the time, with 28.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 2.0:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).
Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.
🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)
Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.
This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when WHR was in similar price contexts:
📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 0.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress
📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 10.1%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Binary Success | 0.0% | 143 samples – moderate confidence |
| Graded Success | 10.1% | 143 samples – moderate confidence |
| Improvement | +10.1 points | Graded method captures partial gains |
📊 Confidence Breakdown (60.4/100 – Medium):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 110.9 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.4/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.65)
– Consistency: 20.0/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes
🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 143 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 110.9 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 56.0% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 0.0% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: No (N/A% max prevents overconfidence)
📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 10.1% vs binary 0.0% (improvement: +10.1pp) shows that even when $WHR doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.
💰 Price Targets and Risk Management
These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on WHR’s daily volatility (ATR).
| Target Type | Price Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Optimal Buy | $126.01 | Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward. |
| 🟢 Good Value | $122.62 | Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback. |
| 🟢 Deep Value | $118.55 | Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news). |
| 🔴 Reduce Position | $129.39 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $131.97 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $136.84 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $139.55 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 25-50% (Deep value) (Current price) | Low confidence due to CRASH_ZONE. |
Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).
⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)
Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.
Risk/Reward Analysis
🟢 Quality Assessment: Excellent (10.58:1)
| Component | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Price | $74.50 | Current market price for WHR |
| Target Price | $139.55 | Projected resistance or breakout level |
| Stop Loss | $68.35 | Risk management exit point |
| Potential Reward | $65.05 | Target – Entry |
| Potential Risk | $6.15 | Entry – Stop |
| R/R Ratio | 10.58:1 | Reward divided by Risk |
Calculation Breakdown
Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)
Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $139.55 (target) – $74.50 (entry) = $65.05
2. Risk = $74.50 (entry) – $68.35 (stop) = $6.15
3. Ratio = $65.05 / $6.15 = 10.58:1
Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($68.35)
14-Day ATR: $2.13 (~2.9% of entry price) – stop is 2.9x ATR for volatility adjustment
💡 Interpretation
A ratio above 2.5:1 is considered excellent – you’re risking $1 to potentially gain $10.58. This provides favorable asymmetric upside.
Position Sizing Guidance: With a 10.58:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 10.58% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).
Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.
🎯 Dual-Lane Analysis (RFC-028)
The analysis identifies three distinct trading lanes with different entry strategies:
🛡️ Regime Gating:
– Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
– Probability floor: 35%
– Disabled lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (probability 0% < 35% floor), PULLBACK (probability 0% < 35% floor), BREAKOUT (probability 10% < 35% floor), CURRENT (probability 0% < 35% floor)
– Best lane note: High variance / advanced traders only (probability < 35%)
📊 Lanes Ranked by Expectancy (Probability × R/R):
🥇 Breakout Lane 🚀: 0.07 expectancy
🥈 Shallow Pullback Lane 📈: 0.00 expectancy
🥉 Pullback Lane 📉: 0.00 expectancy
Detailed Comparison Table (with stop-loss levels):
| Lane | Entry | Target | Stop | Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio | Probability | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Shallow Pullback | $72.26 | $136.84 | $70.14 | $64.58 | $2.13 | 30.32:1 | 0% | 0.00 |
| 📉 Pullback | $126.01 | $136.84 | $65.71 | $10.83 | $60.30 | 0.18:1 | 0% | 0.00 |
| 🚀 Breakout | $136.84 | $139.55 | $132.73 | $2.71 | $4.11 | 0.66:1 | 10% | 0.07 |
| ⚖️ Current | $74.50 | $139.55 | $68.35 | $65.05 | $6.15 | 10.58:1 | 0% | 0.00 |
💡 Recommendation:
🚀 Wait for breakout above $136.84 – Breakout Lane offers the best risk-adjusted return with 0.07 expectancy. (High variance / advanced traders only (probability < 35%))
📐 Expectancy Calculation: Expectancy = R/R Ratio × Success Probability
– Higher expectancy = better risk-adjusted return
– Pullback Lane: Wider stops, better entry, higher R/R
– Breakout Lane: Tighter stops, confirmation required, better probability
– Current Lane: Immediate entry, balanced risk/reward
Note: The summary table at the top of the report shows simplified lane comparison; this section provides full details including stop-loss levels.
🎯 Current Analysis
Current Position: WHR is in the CRASH_ZONE at $74.5, 45.0% below its high
🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $136.84
📋 Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: HOLD (LOW) — Maintain exposure per the broader trend; manage risk with stops and sizing.
New Entry: WAIT (LOW) — Entry guidance follows the current-zone recommendation.
🔍 Confidence: LOW
📈 Historical Success: 0.1
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 10.58
📋 Trading Scenarios
Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:
🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $136.84
🎯 FINAL_ACTION
Primary Setup: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $136.84
🚀 PRIMARY_ACTION: Breakout Entry (Momentum)
Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry
Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $136.84 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout
Position Setup:
– Entry: $136.84 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $136.16
– Initial Target: $139.55 (strong breakout – take 50% profit)
– Extended Target: $146.53 (momentum continuation – let 50% run)
– Stop Loss: $132.73 (3% below breakout entry)
– Why this stop? Breakout entries require tight stops at invalidation point; if price falls below breakout level, setup failed and we exit immediately
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)
Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to initial target
Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)
⏸️ Scenario C: Wait for Better Setup
Best for: Disciplined traders who wait for optimal entries
Current Situation:
– Price: $74.50 (in Crash Zone)
– New Entry Action: Wait
– Issue: Risk/reward not favorable at current levels
Action Plan:
1. Add to watchlist – Don’t enter yet
2. Set alerts:
– Pullback alert at $126.01 (entry opportunity)
– Breakout alert at $136.84 (momentum confirmation)
3. Monitor for:
– Volume patterns (watch for accumulation vs distribution)
– Sector trends and correlations
– News catalysts or earnings reports
Wait For:
– Pullback to $126.01-$122.62 (better R/R), OR
– Confirmed breakout above $136.84 with volume
Why Wait:
– Current price offers poor risk/reward
– Better entries exist at defined levels
– Wait for better technical setup or fundamental catalyst
📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis
Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure
📉 Current Trend: Down
10-Day Net Change: -3,722,262
Interpretation: Bearish – OBV declining over 10 days (-3,722,262)
OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).
VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence
🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals
| Timeframe | Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day | Neutral | High | Immediate institutional positioning |
| 14-Day | Neutral | Medium | Swing accumulation/distribution |
| 30-Day | Neutral | Medium | Trend-level volume commitment |
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.
Volume Activity Metrics
➡️ Relative Volume: 0.95x
vs. 20-Day Average: -4.8%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 0.99 (Neutral)
ℹ️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis
Severity: Mild
Type: Bearish Confirmation (confidence -5%)
Signals:
– ⚠️ Bearish confirmation: Price down -3.2% with OBV falling -3.9x – selling pressure
– ⚠️ EXTREME VOL WATCH: Price falling -3.2% with OBV declining -3.9x (≥0.10× avg) in ≥95th percentile volatility
Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.
💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones
Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent
Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.
📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis
Current MA Positioning
| MA Period | Price | Distance | Slope | Direction | Support Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA10 | $72.93 | -2.1% | -3.00% | 📉 Falling | – |
| SMA20 | $74.91 | +0.6% | -2.18% | 📉 Falling | – |
| SMA50 | $73.41 | -1.5% | -0.07% | ➡️ Flat | – |
| SMA200 | $83.34 | +11.9% | -0.57% | 📉 Falling | – |
🎯 Detected MA Clusters
VERY_STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA10 + SMA50 + SMA20 converging at $73.75 (1.0% below current price)
– 3 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: VERY_STRONG
– Interpretation: Price above cluster support. Strong support zone if tested on pullback.
🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets
1️⃣ Primary Target: $73.75 (1.0% pullback)
- MA Level: UNKNOWN
- Probability: VERY_HIGH (Priority Score: 150)
- MA Characteristics: MA Cluster (SMA10, SMA50, SMA20) – VERY_STRONG support
- Risk/Reward: Uncertain support, deep pullback required
- What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach
💡 MA Cluster Alignment (Governed by FINAL_ACTION)
FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $136.84
Alignment: Conflicts with primary action
Note: MA cluster analysis highlights pullback support levels; primary plan is a breakout confirmation trigger.
💼 Investment Considerations
- 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $122.62 (value zone) to $118.55 (deep value) with wide stops ($65.71) to manage downside. Current price at $74.5 is 45.0% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
- ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $136.84 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances sector trends.
- 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but WHR’s high relative volatility (75.0th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.
🔬 Methodology
This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies WHR’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where WHR historically breaks out or reverses, using 1256 days of data (since ~2022).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares WHR’s 30-day volatility (37.5%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 75.0th percentile, no major zone adjustments.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (0.7% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 2.36% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 2.0:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.
The analysis is robust (1256 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.
🏢 About Whirlpool Corporation
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Whirlpool Corporation manufactures and markets home appliances and related products. It operates through four segments: North America; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America; and Asia. The company’s principal products include refrigerators, freezers, ice makers, and refrigerator water filters; laundry appliances and related laundry accessories; cooking and other small domestic appliances; and dishwasher appliances and related accessories, as well as mixers. It markets and distributes its …
📊 Understanding Expectancy
What is Expectancy? Expectancy represents your average profit per dollar of risk across many similar trades. It’s calculated as: Expectancy = Risk/Reward Ratio × Probability
Why does it matter? Expectancy shows which trading scenario has the best edge over time. Higher expectancy = better opportunity.
Example with WHR: If you risk $100 on the BREAKOUT lane (0.07 expectancy):
– 10 winning trades (out of 100): Earn $${breakout_rr} profit each = $0.6610 total (10 × $100 × 0.66)
– (100 – 10) losing trades: Lose $100 each = $1000 total loss
– Net result: $0.6610 – $1000 = $0.07 × $10,000 profit on $10,000 risked
– Average per trade: $0.07 × $100 risk = $0.070 profit per $100 risked
This is NOT a 43% return—it’s $0.070 expected profit per trade. Over 100 trades, your edge compounds, but individual results will vary.
How to use this: The system recommends the lane with the highest expectancy because statistically, it offers the best risk-adjusted edge for your trading account.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like WHR involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Report generated on January 03, 2026
