PHIN Near Resistance | OBV Accumulation | 1-Month

πŸ“ˆ PHIN WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $70.73 (0.66:1 R/R)

🏒 Company Overview

PHINIA Inc. | Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Auto – Parts


This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for PHIN. Using historical price data up to 2026-01-15, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to PHIN’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial adviceβ€”always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

πŸ“Š Key Data Points

  • Symbol: PHIN
  • Analysis Date: 2026-01-15
  • Current Price: $69.81
  • 1-Month High: $70.03 (reached on 2026-01-12 00:00:00)
  • Distance from High: 0.3%

πŸ›‘οΈ Regime & Gating

  • Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
  • Disabled Lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (probability 19% < 35% floor)
  • Probability Floor: 35%
  • Notes: No gating notes
  • Badge: Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION | Disabled: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (probability 19% < 35% floor) | Prob floor: 35%

πŸ“ˆ Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

  • Short-term (5 days): Mild rally (+2.7% in 5 days)
  • Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+31.5% in 3 months)
  • Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+40.0% in 12 months)

Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2026-01-08 00:00:00 to 2026-01-15, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: MIXED at NORMAL pace.

πŸ“Š RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).

Current RSI Status

πŸ”΄ Overbought Condition

Metric Value Interpretation
RSI (14-day) 82.1 Overbought
Signal πŸ”΄ Overbought RSI at 82.1 indicates overbought conditions – extended rally, potential pullback

Trading Implication: RSI above 70 suggests PHIN may be overbought and vulnerable to pullback. Strong trends can remain overbought for extended periods. Consider:
– Taking partial profits if holding positions
– Tightening stop losses to protect gains
– Waiting for pullback to support before adding

⚠️ Caution: Overbought in uptrend can signal strength – don’t short blindly.

Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg Γ— 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.

⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 31 – Jan 14, 2026))

⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (bullish_trend_with_absorption)

Signal Status Value
πŸ”΅ Range Compression Normal 0.000
πŸ”΅ Volume Activity Normal 0.000
πŸ”΅ Wick Patterns 2 lower absorptions vs 1 upper rejections – buying support at lows 1 rejections / 2 absorptions
πŸ”΅ Candlestick Patterns Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops) 5 patterns

Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a moderate bullish trend with absorption, suggesting a potential for continuation but not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity imply that significant volatility contraction is not present, reducing the immediacy of a breakout scenario.

Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).

Pattern Formation Timeline

Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🟒 Hammer: Jan 14 (bullish reversal signals)
– βšͺ Doji: Jan 12, Jan 14 (indecision)
– πŸ”΅ Spinning Top: Jan 12, Jan 13 (indecision)

Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Jan 12 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Jan 09, Jan 14 (buying support)

Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 31 – Jan 14, 2026) for timing signals.

πŸ“‰ Volatility and Market Context

PHIN’s price movements are classified as “Very High (speculative / event-driven)” with an annualized volatility of 41.3% and a typical daily price swing of 2.6% ($1.82). This means PHIN can move about 2.6% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.

  • 🎯 Relative Volatility: PHIN’s current volatility ranks in the 83.0th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means PHIN’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 83.0% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
  • 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $690.36, 1.4% above its 50-day moving average ($680.61). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
Metric Value Explanation
πŸ“Š Stock Volatility 41.3% (annualized) Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward
πŸ“… Daily Volatility (Οƒ) 2.6% ($1.82) Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context
🎯 Volatility vs. SPY 83.0th percentile higher risk than the market
πŸ“ˆ Market Trend neutral (1.4% vs. SMA50) Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk.
βš–οΈ Baseline Setup R/R 0.37:1 Risk/Reward for a baseline entry at current price with a wide stop (see RFC-008 section)

🎯 Lane R/R Analysis (RFC-029)

PHIN offers different risk/reward profiles depending on entry timing. Each lane represents a strategic price level for entry, with its own risk/reward ratio and probability based on historical performance:

Lane Entry Target R/R Probability Expectancy Best For
πŸ“‰ Deep Pullback $65.83 $70.73 0.96:1 55% 0.08 Conservative entry at optimal buy zone
πŸš€ Breakout $70.73 $72.13 0.66:1 65% 0.08 Momentum entry with close-based confirmation
βš–οΈ Current (Baseline) $69.81 $72.13 0.37:1 47% -0.36 Baseline only (not an entry lane)

Ranked by Expectancy:
– πŸ₯‡ Pullback πŸ“‰: 0.08 EV
– πŸ₯ˆ Breakout πŸš€: 0.08 EV
– πŸ₯‰ Current (Baseline) βš–οΈ: -0.36 EV

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $70.73

πŸ’‘ Best Current Opportunity: πŸš€ Breakout Lane (0.08 EV) – Wait for breakout confirmation above $70.73 with 0.66:1 lane R/R and 65% lane probability.

🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones

This analysis uses PHIN’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($70.03). These zones are adjusted for PHIN’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~1.8 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).

Zone Distance (%) Price Level Trading Insight
πŸ”΄ Resistance 1.2 $69.19 Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely
🟑 Caution 2.9 $68.0 Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals
🟒 Sweet Spot 6.0 $65.83 Optimal buy zone with 50.0% success rate
πŸ’Ž Value 9.0 $63.73 Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone
πŸ”΅ Deep Value 14.0 $60.23 Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts
⚠️ Extreme Value 16.9 $58.19 Severe oversold; high crash riskβ€”wait for catalyst
🚨 Crash Zone >30% Below extreme Critical danger zoneβ€”avoid unless deep value investor

πŸ“ˆ Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When PHIN was specifically at 6.0% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 50.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (βˆ’10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.7:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).

Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.

🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)

Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contextsβ€”matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zoneβ€”not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.

This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when PHIN was in similar price contexts:

πŸ“Š Binary Success (Traditional Method)
What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
Rate: 55.0%
Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress

πŸ“ˆ Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟒 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟑 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟑 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– πŸ”΄ 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
Rate: 65.0%
Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets

Metric Value Notes
Binary Success 55.0% 162 samples – moderate confidence
Graded Success 65.0% 162 samples – moderate confidence
Improvement +10.0 points Graded method captures partial gains

πŸ“Š Confidence Breakdown (51.3/100 – Medium):
Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 119.9 weighted samples
Quality: 0.4/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.76)
Consistency: 10.9/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes

πŸ” Sample Quality & Reliability:
Total Samples: 162 similar historical contexts
Effective Samples: 119.9 (weighted by recency)
Recent Data: 100.0% from last 3 years
Raw Rate: 90.8% (before adjustments)
Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)

πŸ“Š What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $PHIN doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.

πŸ’° Price Targets and Risk Management

These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on PHIN’s daily volatility (ATR).

Target Type Price Level Notes
🟒 Optimal Buy $65.83 Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward.
🟒 Good Value $63.73 Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback.
🟒 Deep Value $60.23 Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news).

| πŸ”΄ Reduce Position | $68.0 | In caution zoneβ€”scale back exposure. |
| πŸ”΄ Exit/Hedge | $69.19 | Near resistanceβ€”consider selling or hedging. |
| πŸš€ Breakout Confirmation | $70.73 | 1% above highβ€”signals new uptrend. |
| πŸš€ Strong Breakout | $72.13 | 3% above highβ€”confirms bullish momentum. |
| πŸ“Š Position Sizing | 5-10% (Near resistance) (Current price) | Low confidence due to RESISTANCE_ZONE. |

Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)

Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.

Risk/Reward Analysis

πŸ”΄ Quality Assessment: Poor (0.37:1)

Component Value Notes
Entry Price $69.81 Current market price for PHIN
Target Price $72.13 Projected resistance or breakout level
Stop Loss $63.46 Risk management exit point
Potential Reward $2.32 Target – Entry
Potential Risk $6.35 Entry – Stop
R/R Ratio 0.37:1 Reward divided by Risk

Calculation Breakdown

Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)

Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $72.13 (target) – $69.81 (entry) = $2.32
2. Risk = $69.81 (entry) – $63.46 (stop) = $6.35
3. Ratio = $2.32 / $6.35 = 0.37:1

Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($63.46)
14-Day ATR: $1.66 (~2.4% of entry price) – stop is 3.8x ATR for volatility adjustment

πŸ’‘ Interpretation

A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.

Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.37:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.37% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).

Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.

🎯 Dual-Lane Analysis (RFC-028)

The analysis identifies three distinct trading lanes with different entry strategies:

πŸ›‘οΈ Regime Gating:
– Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
– Probability floor: 35%
– Disabled lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (probability 19% < 35% floor)

πŸ“Š Lanes Ranked by Expectancy (EV per 1R):
πŸ₯‡ Pullback Lane πŸ“‰: 0.08 EV
πŸ₯ˆ Breakout Lane πŸš€: 0.08 EV
πŸ₯‰ Current Lane βš–οΈ: -0.36 EV

Detailed Comparison Table (ACTIVE lanes only; disabled lanes omitted):

Definitions:
p = modeled probability of hitting the lane target before the lane stop (proxy from historical analog contexts)
R = lane reward-to-risk multiple for that entry/stop/target
EV = p Γ— R βˆ’ (1 βˆ’ p) (per 1R)

R/R Labels:
Baseline Setup R/R uses current price + broader ATR-based stop (context)
Lane R/R uses each lane’s own entry/stop/target (action model)

Lane Entry Target Stop Reward Risk R/R Ratio Probability Expectancy
πŸ“‰ Deep Pullback $65.83 $70.73 $60.73 $4.90 $5.10 0.96:1 55% 0.08
πŸš€ Breakout $70.73 $72.13 $68.61 $1.40 $2.12 0.66:1 65% 0.08

πŸ’‘ Recommendation:
πŸš€ Wait for breakout above $70.73 – Breakout Lane has EV 0.08R.

πŸ“ Expectancy Calculation (EV per 1R): EV = p Γ— R βˆ’ (1 βˆ’ p)
– Higher EV = better average edge per unit risk (1R)
– Breakeven win rate: p = 1 / (1 + R)
– Pullback Lane: Wider stops, better entry, potentially higher R
– Breakout Lane: Tighter stops, confirmation required, potentially higher p
– Current Lane: Immediate entry, typically lower edge vs planned entries

πŸ“Œ Breakout Multi-Target Variant (simple model)
– T1 R: 0.66R, T2 R: 2.36R (T2 = T1Γ—1.05)
– 50/50 scale-out effective R: 1.51R
– EV (using same p): 0.63R | Breakeven p: 40%
(This is an illustrative payoff curve; actual multi-target probabilities may differ.)

Note: The summary table at the top of the report shows simplified lane comparison; this section provides full details including stop-loss levels.

🎯 Current Analysis

Current Position: PHIN is in the RESISTANCE_ZONE at $69.81, 0.3% below its high

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $70.73

πŸ“‹ Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: HOLD_PROTECT (HIGH) β€” RSI is elevated near resistance; protect gains (trim/hedge) while maintaining core exposure.
New Entry: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK (LOW) β€” Pullback EV 0.08R (value entry).

πŸ” Confidence: MEDIUM

πŸ“ˆ Historical Success: 0.65

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward: 0.37

πŸ“‹ Trading Scenarios

Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $70.73

🎯 FINAL_ACTION

Primary Setup: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $70.73

πŸ“‰ Pullback Entry (FINAL_ACTION)

Entry: $65.83 – $63.73
Targets: $70.73 (confirm) β†’ $72.13 (strong)
Stop: $60.73 (wide; support-level volatility)

Risk/Reward: ~0.96:1 to first target

πŸ“Š Comprehensive Volume Analysis

Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure

πŸ“ˆ Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +2,191,112
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+2,191,112)

OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).

VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence

🟑 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals

Timeframe Signal Weight Interpretation
5-Day Neutral High Immediate institutional positioning
14-Day Neutral Medium Swing accumulation/distribution
30-Day Neutral Medium Trend-level volume commitment

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.

Volume Activity Metrics

➑️ Relative Volume: 0.95x
vs. 20-Day Average: -4.8%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 1.01 (Neutral)

ℹ️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis

Severity: Mild
Type: Bullish Confirmation (confidence +5%)

Signals:
– βœ… Mild bullish confirmation: Price and OBV both rising

Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.

πŸ’‘ Volume Integration with Price Zones

Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
Near Resistance + Distribution: High riskβ€”institutions may be selling into strength
Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signalβ€”institutions building positions
Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trendβ€”likely to sustain
Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warningβ€”potential reversal imminent

Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.

πŸ“Š Moving Average Cluster Analysis

Current MA Positioning

MA Period Price Distance Slope Direction Support Quality
SMA10 $67.21 -3.7% +5.73% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong
SMA20 $64.00 -8.3% +4.76% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong
SMA50 $58.19 -16.6% +2.85% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong
SMA200 $51.30 -26.5% +1.20% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong

🎯 Detected MA Clusters

No significant MA clusters detected. Moving averages are well-distributed, suggesting clear individual support/resistance levels rather than convergence zones.

🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets

1️⃣ Primary Target: $67.21 (3.7% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA10
  • Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA10 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
  • What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach

2️⃣ Secondary Target: $64.00 (8.3% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA20
  • Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 115)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
  • What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $58.19 (16.6% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA50
  • Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 95)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
  • What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

4️⃣ Tertiary #2 Target: $51.30 (26.5% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA200
  • Probability: LOW (Priority Score: 75)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: High-confidence support if reached, but large pullback required
  • What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

πŸ’‘ MA Cluster Alignment (Governed by FINAL_ACTION)

FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $70.73
Alignment: Supports primary action
Note: MA pullback targets provide potential support levels to execute the primary plan.


πŸ”„ Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)

Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.

Peers Analyzed: 3 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)

Target vs. Sector Performance

Metric PHIN Sector Avg Relative Status
5-Day Change +2.71% +4.66% -1.95pp πŸ“‰ Underperforming
10-Day Change +11.36% +9.71% +1.65pp πŸ“ˆ Outperforming

Peer Momentum Breakdown

Ticker 5-Day 10-Day
TEN +8.42% +17.10%
ALV +4.22% +6.88%
BWA +1.33% +5.14%

πŸ’‘ Interpretation

πŸ“Š Mixed signals: Short-term and longer-term relative performance divergeβ€”monitor for trend confirmation.

Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The selected peers are all involved in the automotive components manufacturing industry, with a focus on fuel injection systems, electronics and engine management, and vehicle diagnostics. They have similar business models and revenue mix as PHINIA Inc.

πŸ’Ό Investment Considerations

  • 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $63.73 (value zone) to $60.23 (deep value) with wide stops ($60.73) to manage downside. Current price at $69.81 is 0.3% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
  • ⚑ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $70.73 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Auto – Parts sector trends.
  • 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but PHIN’s high relative volatility (83.0th percentile) suggests bigger swingsβ€”diversify and stay cautious.

πŸ”¬ Methodology

This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies PHIN’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
πŸ“Š Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where PHIN historically breaks out or reverses, using 640 days of data (since ~2024).
πŸ“ˆ Volatility Adjustment: Compares PHIN’s 30-day volatility (41.3%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 83.0th percentile, widening zones for safety.
⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~1.8 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.4% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
πŸ“Š Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
πŸ“ Metrics: Daily Volatility (Οƒ) 2.6% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.7:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.

The analysis is robust (640 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.

🏒 About PHINIA Inc.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Auto – Parts

PHINIA Inc. develops and manufactures gasoline and diesel fuel injection components and systems. The company also sells products and services to independent aftermarket customers and original equipment service customers with new and remanufactured products. Its product portfolio includes a range of solutions covering the fuel injection, electronics and engine management, starters and alternators, maintenance, test equipment, and vehicle diagnostics categories. The company was incorporated in 202…

πŸ“Š Understanding Expectancy

What is Expectancy (EV)? Expectancy represents your average profit per unit of risk (1R) across many similar trades.

Definition (per 1R):
EV = p Γ— R βˆ’ (1 βˆ’ p)
p = win probability
R = reward-to-risk multiple (e.g., R=2.0 means +2R on wins, βˆ’1R on losses)

Breakeven win rate:
p = 1 / (1 + R) β†’ for the BREAKOUT lane here, breakeven is 60%

Worked example with PHIN (BREAKOUT lane)

Assume 100 trades, risking $100 each (total risk = $10000):
– Expected win profit: p Γ— N Γ— $risk Γ— R = $4290
– Expected losses: (1βˆ’p) Γ— N Γ— $risk = βˆ’$3500
– Expected net: EV Γ— N Γ— $risk = $790
– Expected per trade: EV Γ— $risk = $8

How to use this: The system recommends the lane with the highest EV because, statistically, it offers the best risk-adjusted edge (per 1R). Individual outcomes will vary.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like PHIN involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.


Report generated on January 15, 2026

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