📈 PAGP WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $19.60 (2.04:1 R/R)
🏢 Company Overview
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. | Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for PAGP. Using historical price data up to 2026-01-15, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to PAGP’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
📊 Key Data Points
- Symbol: PAGP
- Analysis Date: 2026-01-15
- Current Price: $20.25
- 1-Month High: $20.4 (reached on 2026-01-14 00:00:00)
- Distance from High: 0.7%
🛡️ Regime & Gating
- Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
- Disabled Lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Δentry|=0.04 <= 0.15))
- Probability Floor: 35%
- Notes: No gating notes
- Badge: Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION | Disabled: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Δentry|=0.04 <= 0.15)) | Prob floor: 35%
📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
- Short-term (5 days): Mild rally (+3.3% in 5 days)
- Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+18.5% in 3 months)
- Long-term (12 months): Sideways (-1.9% in 12 months)
Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2026-01-08 00:00:00 to 2026-01-15, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: RISING at NORMAL pace.
📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).
Current RSI Status
🔴 Overbought Condition
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 76.3 | Overbought |
| Signal | 🔴 Overbought | RSI at 76.3 indicates overbought conditions – extended rally, potential pullback |
Trading Implication: RSI above 70 suggests PAGP may be overbought and vulnerable to pullback. Strong trends can remain overbought for extended periods. Consider:
– Taking partial profits if holding positions
– Tightening stop losses to protect gains
– Waiting for pullback to support before adding
⚠️ Caution: Overbought in uptrend can signal strength – don’t short blindly.
Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.
⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 31 – Jan 14, 2026))
⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (moderate_microstructure_edge)
| Signal | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Range Compression | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Volume Activity | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Wick Patterns | 2 upper rejections vs 1 lower absorptions – selling pressure at highs | 2 rejections / 1 absorptions |
| 🔵 Candlestick Patterns | Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops) | 3 patterns |
Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a moderate microstructure edge, suggesting that while there are some signals present, this is not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity further supports a more cautious approach, as these metrics do not signal a strong directional move.
Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).
Pattern Formation Timeline
Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🟢 Hammer: Jan 05 (bullish reversal signals)
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Dec 31, Jan 14 (indecision)
Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Jan 12, Jan 14 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Jan 05 (buying support)
Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 31 – Jan 14, 2026) for timing signals.
📉 Volatility and Market Context
PAGP’s price movements are classified as “High (high-beta / momentum)” with an annualized volatility of 29.7% and a typical daily price swing of 1.87% ($0.38). This means PAGP can move about 1.87% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.
- 🎯 Relative Volatility: PAGP’s current volatility ranks in the 59.0th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means PAGP’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 59.0% of historical trading days, indicating typical market risk.
- 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $690.36, 1.4% above its 50-day moving average ($680.61). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
| Metric | Value | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 📊 Stock Volatility | 29.7% (annualized) | Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward |
| 📅 Daily Volatility (σ) | 1.87% ($0.38) | Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context |
| 🎯 Volatility vs. SPY | 59.0th percentile | typical market risk |
| 📈 Market Trend | neutral (1.4% vs. SMA50) | Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk. |
| ⚖️ Baseline Setup R/R | 1.0:1 | Risk/Reward for a baseline entry at current price with a wide stop (see RFC-008 section) |
🎯 Lane R/R Analysis (RFC-029)
PAGP offers different risk/reward profiles depending on entry timing. Each lane represents a strategic price level for entry, with its own risk/reward ratio and probability based on historical performance:
| Lane | Entry | Target | R/R | Probability | Expectancy | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📉 Deep Pullback | $19.60 | $20.60 | 2.04:1 | 55% | 0.67 | Conservative entry at optimal buy zone |
| 🚀 Breakout | $20.60 | $21.01 | 0.66:1 | 65% | 0.08 | Momentum entry with close-based confirmation |
| ⚖️ Current (Baseline) | $20.25 | $21.01 | 1.00:1 | 47% | -0.06 | Baseline only (not an entry lane) |
Ranked by Expectancy:
– 🥇 Pullback 📉: 0.67 EV
– 🥈 Breakout 🚀: 0.08 EV
– 🥉 Current (Baseline) ⚖️: -0.06 EV
🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $19.60
💡 Best Current Opportunity: 📉 Deep Pullback Lane (0.67 EV) – Wait for price to pull back to $19.60 with 2.04:1 lane R/R and 55% lane probability.
🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones
This analysis uses PAGP’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($20.4). These zones are adjusted for PAGP’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).
| Zone | Distance (%) | Price Level | Trading Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Resistance | 0.8 | $20.24 | Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely |
| 🟡 Caution | 2.1 | $19.97 | Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals |
| 🟢 Sweet Spot | 3.9 | $19.6 | Optimal buy zone with 37.0% success rate |
| 💎 Value | 5.3 | $19.32 | Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone |
| 🔵 Deep Value | 15.2 | $17.3 | Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts |
| ⚠️ Extreme Value | 16.7 | $16.99 | Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst |
| 🚨 Crash Zone | >30% | Below extreme | Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor |
📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When PAGP was specifically at 3.9% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 37.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.2:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).
Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.
🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)
Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.
This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when PAGP was in similar price contexts:
📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 55.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress
📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 65.0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Binary Success | 55.0% | 668 samples – moderate confidence |
| Graded Success | 65.0% | 668 samples – moderate confidence |
| Improvement | +10.0 points | Graded method captures partial gains |
📊 Confidence Breakdown (44.9/100 – Low):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 533.6 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.1/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.65)
– Consistency: 4.9/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes
🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 668 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 533.6 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 72.1% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 80.8% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)
📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $PAGP doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.
💰 Price Targets and Risk Management
These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on PAGP’s daily volatility (ATR).
| Target Type | Price Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Optimal Buy | $19.6 | Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward. |
| 🟢 Good Value | $19.32 | Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback. |
| 🟢 Deep Value | $17.3 | Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news). |
| 🔴 Reduce Position | $19.97 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $20.24 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $20.6 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $21.01 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 25-50% (Near resistance) (Current price) | Low confidence due to RESISTANCE_ZONE. |
Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).
⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)
Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.
Risk/Reward Analysis
🟠 Quality Assessment: Marginal (1.00:1)
| Component | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Price | $20.25 | Current market price for PAGP |
| Target Price | $21.01 | Projected resistance or breakout level |
| Stop Loss | $19.49 | Risk management exit point |
| Potential Reward | $0.76 | Target – Entry |
| Potential Risk | $0.76 | Entry – Stop |
| R/R Ratio | 1.00:1 | Reward divided by Risk |
Calculation Breakdown
Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)
Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $21.01 (target) – $20.25 (entry) = $0.76
2. Risk = $20.25 (entry) – $19.49 (stop) = $0.76
3. Ratio = $0.76 / $0.76 = 1.00:1
Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($19.49)
14-Day ATR: $0.30 (~1.5% of entry price) – stop is 2.5x ATR for volatility adjustment
💡 Interpretation
A ratio between 1.0-1.5:1 is marginal – reward barely exceeds risk. Consider waiting for better setup or wider targets.
Position Sizing Guidance: With a 1.00:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 1.00% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).
Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.
🎯 Dual-Lane Analysis (RFC-028)
The analysis identifies three distinct trading lanes with different entry strategies:
🛡️ Regime Gating:
– Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
– Probability floor: 35%
– Disabled lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Δentry|=0.04 <= 0.15))
📊 Lanes Ranked by Expectancy (EV per 1R):
🥇 Pullback Lane 📉: 0.67 EV
🥈 Breakout Lane 🚀: 0.08 EV
🥉 Current Lane ⚖️: -0.06 EV
Detailed Comparison Table (ACTIVE lanes only; disabled lanes omitted):
Definitions:
– p = modeled probability of hitting the lane target before the lane stop (proxy from historical analog contexts)
– R = lane reward-to-risk multiple for that entry/stop/target
– EV = p × R − (1 − p) (per 1R)
R/R Labels:
– Baseline Setup R/R uses current price + broader ATR-based stop (context)
– Lane R/R uses each lane’s own entry/stop/target (action model)
| Lane | Entry | Target | Stop | Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio | Probability | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📉 Deep Pullback | $19.60 | $20.60 | $19.11 | $1.00 | $0.49 | 2.04:1 | 55% | 0.67 |
| 🚀 Breakout | $20.60 | $21.01 | $19.98 | $0.41 | $0.62 | 0.66:1 | 65% | 0.08 |
💡 Recommendation:
⏳ Wait for pullback to $19.60 – Pullback Lane has EV 0.67R.
📐 Expectancy Calculation (EV per 1R): EV = p × R − (1 − p)
– Higher EV = better average edge per unit risk (1R)
– Breakeven win rate: p = 1 / (1 + R)
– Pullback Lane: Wider stops, better entry, potentially higher R
– Breakout Lane: Tighter stops, confirmation required, potentially higher p
– Current Lane: Immediate entry, typically lower edge vs planned entries
📌 Breakout Multi-Target Variant (simple model)
– T1 R: 0.66R, T2 R: 2.36R (T2 = T1×1.05)
– 50/50 scale-out effective R: 1.51R
– EV (using same p): 0.63R | Breakeven p: 40%
(This is an illustrative payoff curve; actual multi-target probabilities may differ.)
Note: The summary table at the top of the report shows simplified lane comparison; this section provides full details including stop-loss levels.
🎯 Current Analysis
Current Position: PAGP is in the RESISTANCE_ZONE at $20.25, 0.7% below its high
🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $19.60
📋 Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: HOLD_PROTECT (HIGH) — RSI is elevated near resistance; protect gains (trim/hedge) while maintaining core exposure.
New Entry: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK (MEDIUM) — Pullback EV 0.67R (value entry).
🔍 Confidence: HIGH
📈 Historical Success: 0.65
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1.0
📋 Trading Scenarios
Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:
🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $19.60
🎯 FINAL_ACTION
Primary Setup: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $19.60
📉 Pullback Entry (FINAL_ACTION)
Entry: $19.60 – $19.32
Targets: $20.60 (confirm) → $21.01 (strong)
Stop: $19.11 (wide; support-level volatility)
Risk/Reward: ~2.04:1 to first target
📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis
Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure
📈 Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +9,745,338
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+9,745,338)
OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).
VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence
🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals
| Timeframe | Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day | Neutral | High | Immediate institutional positioning |
| 14-Day | Neutral | Medium | Swing accumulation/distribution |
| 30-Day | Neutral | Medium | Trend-level volume commitment |
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.
Volume Activity Metrics
➡️ Relative Volume: 1.07x
vs. 20-Day Average: +7.4%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 1.01 (Neutral)
⚠️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis
Severity: Moderate
Type: Bullish Confirmation (confidence +10%)
Signals:
– ✅ Bullish confirmation: Price up +5.8% with OBV rising +4.4x – buying pressure
Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.
💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones
Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent
Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.
📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis
Current MA Positioning
| MA Period | Price | Distance | Slope | Direction | Support Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA10 | $19.64 | -3.0% | +2.83% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
| SMA20 | $19.23 | -5.0% | +1.58% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
| SMA50 | $18.58 | -8.2% | +1.29% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
| SMA200 | $18.65 | -7.9% | -0.21% | ➡️ Flat | – |
🎯 Detected MA Clusters
STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA20 + SMA10 converging at $19.44 (4.0% below current price)
– 2 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: STRONG
– Interpretation: Price above cluster support. Strong support zone if tested on pullback.
STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA50 + SMA200 converging at $18.61 (8.1% below current price)
– 2 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: STRONG
– Interpretation: Price above cluster support. Strong support zone if tested on pullback.
🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets
1️⃣ Primary Target: $19.44 (4.0% pullback)
- MA Level: UNKNOWN
- Probability: VERY_HIGH (Priority Score: 140)
- MA Characteristics: MA Cluster (SMA20, SMA10) – STRONG support
- Risk/Reward: Uncertain support, deep pullback required
- What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach
2️⃣ Secondary Target: $18.61 (8.1% pullback)
- MA Level: UNKNOWN
- Probability: VERY_HIGH (Priority Score: 140)
- MA Characteristics: MA Cluster (SMA50, SMA200) – STRONG support
- Risk/Reward: Uncertain support, deep pullback required
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $19.64 (3.0% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA10
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
- MA Characteristics: SMA10 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
4️⃣ Tertiary #2 Target: $19.23 (5.0% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA20
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 115)
- MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
5️⃣ Tertiary #3 Target: $18.58 (8.2% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA50
- Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 95)
- MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
💡 MA Cluster Alignment (Governed by FINAL_ACTION)
FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK to $19.60
Alignment: Supports primary action
Note: MA pullback targets provide potential support levels to execute the primary plan.
🔄 Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)
Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.
Peers Analyzed: 1 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)
Target vs. Sector Performance
| Metric | PAGP | Sector Avg | Relative | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Change | +3.26% | +5.83% | -2.57pp | 📉 Underperforming |
| 10-Day Change | +5.80% | +6.66% | -0.86pp | 📉 Underperforming |
Peer Momentum Breakdown
| Ticker | 5-Day | 10-Day |
|---|---|---|
| PAA | +5.83% | +6.66% |
💡 Interpretation
⚠️ Company-specific weakness: PAGP is lagging peers, indicating potential company-level issues or missed opportunities relative to sector.
Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The peer companies were selected based on their similar business models, revenue mix, and factor exposures to Plains GP Holdings, L.P. All peers are involved in the midstream energy sector, providing services such as transportation, storage, and terminalling of crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas.
💼 Investment Considerations
- 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $19.32 (value zone) to $17.3 (deep value) with wide stops ($19.11) to manage downside. Current price at $20.25 is 0.7% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
- ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $20.6 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Oil & Gas Midstream sector trends.
- 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but PAGP’s high relative volatility (59.0th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.
🔬 Methodology
This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies PAGP’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where PAGP historically breaks out or reverses, using 1254 days of data (since ~2022).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares PAGP’s 30-day volatility (29.7%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 59.0th percentile, no major zone adjustments.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.4% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 1.87% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.2:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.
The analysis is robust (1254 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.
🏢 About Plains GP Holdings, L.P.
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). The company engages in the transportation of crude oil and NGLs on pipelines, gathering systems, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and leased assets comprising 18,300 miles of crude oil and NGL pipelines and gathering systems; 38…
📊 Understanding Expectancy
What is Expectancy (EV)? Expectancy represents your average profit per unit of risk (1R) across many similar trades.
Definition (per 1R):
– EV = p × R − (1 − p)
– p = win probability
– R = reward-to-risk multiple (e.g., R=2.0 means +2R on wins, −1R on losses)
Breakeven win rate:
– p = 1 / (1 + R) → for the BREAKOUT lane here, breakeven is 60%
Worked example with PAGP (BREAKOUT lane)
Assume 100 trades, risking $100 each (total risk = $10000):
– Expected win profit: p × N × $risk × R = $4290
– Expected losses: (1−p) × N × $risk = −$3500
– Expected net: EV × N × $risk = $790
– Expected per trade: EV × $risk = $8
How to use this: The system recommends the lane with the highest EV because, statistically, it offers the best risk-adjusted edge (per 1R). Individual outcomes will vary.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like PAGP involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Report generated on January 15, 2026
