AIR Near Resistance | OBV Accumulation | 1-Month

πŸ“ˆ AIR WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $102.45 (0.66:1 R/R)

🏒 Company Overview

AAR Corp. | Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense


This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for AIR. Using historical price data up to 2026-01-15, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to AIR’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial adviceβ€”always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

πŸ“Š Key Data Points

  • Symbol: AIR
  • Analysis Date: 2026-01-15
  • Current Price: $101.08
  • 1-Month High: $101.44 (reached on 2026-01-14 00:00:00)
  • Distance from High: 0.4%

πŸ›‘οΈ Regime & Gating

  • Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
  • Disabled Lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Ξ”entry|=1.07 <= 1.53)), CURRENT (deduped into BREAKOUT (|Ξ”entry|=1.37 <= 1.53))
  • Probability Floor: 35%
  • Notes: No gating notes
  • Badge: Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION | Disabled: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Ξ”entry|=1.07 <= 1.53)), CURRENT (deduped into BREAKOUT (|Ξ”entry|=1.37 <= 1.53)) | Prob floor: 35%

πŸ“ˆ Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

  • Short-term (5 days): Strong rally (+6.7% in 5 days)
  • Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+20.3% in 3 months)
  • Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+45.5% in 12 months)

Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2026-01-08 00:00:00 to 2026-01-15, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: RISING at FAST pace.

πŸ“Š RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).

Current RSI Status

πŸ”΄ Overbought Condition

Metric Value Interpretation
RSI (14-day) 79.5 Overbought
Signal πŸ”΄ Overbought RSI at 79.5 indicates overbought conditions – extended rally, potential pullback

Trading Implication: RSI above 70 suggests AIR may be overbought and vulnerable to pullback. Strong trends can remain overbought for extended periods. Consider:
– Taking partial profits if holding positions
– Tightening stop losses to protect gains
– Waiting for pullback to support before adding

⚠️ Caution: Overbought in uptrend can signal strength – don’t short blindly.

Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg Γ— 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.

⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 31 – Jan 14, 2026))

🌐 Confluence Score: 0/4 (no_microstructure_edge)

Signal Status Value
πŸ”΅ Range Compression Normal 0.000
πŸ”΅ Volume Activity Normal 0.000
πŸ”΅ Wick Patterns 1 rejections vs 1 absorptions – balanced battle 1 rejections / 1 absorptions
πŸ”΅ Candlestick Patterns 2 patterns detected (below threshold) 2 patterns

Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 0/4 indicates no clear microstructure edge, suggesting this is not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity further supports a neutral stance, as there are no strong signals for immediate action.

Timing: No microstructure edge detected. Normal market behavior – no timing advantage.

Pattern Formation Timeline

Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🟒 Hammer: Jan 06 (bullish reversal signals)
– βšͺ Doji: Jan 06 (indecision)

Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Jan 08 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Jan 06 (buying support)

Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 31 – Jan 14, 2026) for timing signals.

πŸ“‰ Volatility and Market Context

AIR’s price movements are classified as “High (high-beta / momentum)” with an annualized volatility of 34.4% and a typical daily price swing of 2.17% ($2.19). This means AIR can move about 2.17% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.

  • 🎯 Relative Volatility: AIR’s current volatility ranks in the 69.0th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means AIR’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 69.0% of historical trading days, indicating typical market risk.
  • 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $690.36, 1.4% above its 50-day moving average ($680.61). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
Metric Value Explanation
πŸ“Š Stock Volatility 34.4% (annualized) Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward
πŸ“… Daily Volatility (Οƒ) 2.17% ($2.19) Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context
🎯 Volatility vs. SPY 69.0th percentile typical market risk
πŸ“ˆ Market Trend neutral (1.4% vs. SMA50) Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk.
βš–οΈ Baseline Setup R/R 0.44:1 Risk/Reward for a baseline entry at current price with a wide stop (see RFC-008 section)

🎯 Lane R/R Analysis (RFC-029)

AIR offers different risk/reward profiles depending on entry timing. Each lane represents a strategic price level for entry, with its own risk/reward ratio and probability based on historical performance:

Lane Entry Target R/R Probability Expectancy Best For
πŸš€ Breakout $102.45 $104.48 0.66:1 65% 0.08 Momentum entry with close-based confirmation
πŸ“‰ Deep Pullback $96.98 $102.45 0.80:1 55% -0.01 Conservative entry at optimal buy zone
βš–οΈ Current (Baseline) $101.08 $104.48 0.44:1 47% -0.33 Baseline only (not an entry lane)

Ranked by Expectancy:
– πŸ₯‡ Breakout πŸš€: 0.08 EV
– πŸ₯ˆ Pullback πŸ“‰: -0.01 EV

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $102.45

πŸ’‘ Best Current Opportunity: πŸš€ Breakout Lane (0.08 EV) – Wait for breakout confirmation above $102.45 with 0.66:1 lane R/R and 65% lane probability.

🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones

This analysis uses AIR’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($101.44). These zones are adjusted for AIR’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).

Zone Distance (%) Price Level Trading Insight
πŸ”΄ Resistance 1.0 $100.43 Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely
🟑 Caution 2.4 $99.01 Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals
🟒 Sweet Spot 4.4 $96.98 Optimal buy zone with 41.0% success rate
πŸ’Ž Value 6.4 $94.95 Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone
πŸ”΅ Deep Value 11.4 $89.88 Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts
⚠️ Extreme Value 12.1 $89.17 Severe oversold; high crash riskβ€”wait for catalyst
🚨 Crash Zone >30% Below extreme Critical danger zoneβ€”avoid unless deep value investor

πŸ“ˆ Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When AIR was specifically at 4.4% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 41.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (βˆ’10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.4:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).

Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.

🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)

Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contextsβ€”matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zoneβ€”not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.

This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when AIR was in similar price contexts:

πŸ“Š Binary Success (Traditional Method)
What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
Rate: 55.0%
Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress

πŸ“ˆ Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟒 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟑 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟑 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– πŸ”΄ 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
Rate: 65.0%
Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets

Metric Value Notes
Binary Success 55.0% 292 samples – moderate confidence
Graded Success 65.0% 292 samples – moderate confidence
Improvement +10.0 points Graded method captures partial gains

πŸ“Š Confidence Breakdown (56.3/100 – Medium):
Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 263.9 weighted samples
Quality: 0.2/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.67)
Consistency: 16.1/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes

πŸ” Sample Quality & Reliability:
Total Samples: 292 similar historical contexts
Effective Samples: 263.9 (weighted by recency)
Recent Data: 82.3% from last 3 years
Raw Rate: 92.9% (before adjustments)
Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)

πŸ“Š What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $AIR doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.

πŸ’° Price Targets and Risk Management

These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on AIR’s daily volatility (ATR).

Target Type Price Level Notes
🟒 Optimal Buy $96.98 Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward.
🟒 Good Value $94.95 Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback.
🟒 Deep Value $89.88 Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news).

| πŸ”΄ Reduce Position | $99.01 | In caution zoneβ€”scale back exposure. |
| πŸ”΄ Exit/Hedge | $100.43 | Near resistanceβ€”consider selling or hedging. |
| πŸš€ Breakout Confirmation | $102.45 | 1% above highβ€”signals new uptrend. |
| πŸš€ Strong Breakout | $104.48 | 3% above highβ€”confirms bullish momentum. |
| πŸ“Š Position Sizing | 5-10% (Near resistance) (Current price) | Low confidence due to RESISTANCE_ZONE. |

Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)

Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.

Risk/Reward Analysis

πŸ”΄ Quality Assessment: Poor (0.44:1)

Component Value Notes
Entry Price $101.08 Current market price for AIR
Target Price $104.48 Projected resistance or breakout level
Stop Loss $93.41 Risk management exit point
Potential Reward $3.40 Target – Entry
Potential Risk $7.67 Entry – Stop
R/R Ratio 0.44:1 Reward divided by Risk

Calculation Breakdown

Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)

Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $104.48 (target) – $101.08 (entry) = $3.40
2. Risk = $101.08 (entry) – $93.41 (stop) = $7.67
3. Ratio = $3.40 / $7.67 = 0.44:1

Stop Loss Determination: Current – (2 Γ— ATR) = $101.08 – $7.67
14-Day ATR: $3.07 (~3.0% of entry price) – stop is 2.5x ATR for volatility adjustment

πŸ’‘ Interpretation

A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.

Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.44:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.44% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).

Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.

🎯 Dual-Lane Analysis (RFC-028)

The analysis identifies three distinct trading lanes with different entry strategies:

πŸ›‘οΈ Regime Gating:
– Regime: NEUTRAL_TRANSITION
– Probability floor: 35%
– Disabled lanes: SHALLOW_PULLBACK (deduped into PULLBACK (|Ξ”entry|=1.07 <= 1.53)), CURRENT (deduped into BREAKOUT (|Ξ”entry|=1.37 <= 1.53))

πŸ“Š Lanes Ranked by Expectancy (EV per 1R):
πŸ₯‡ Breakout Lane πŸš€: 0.08 EV
πŸ₯ˆ Pullback Lane πŸ“‰: -0.01 EV

Detailed Comparison Table (ACTIVE lanes only; disabled lanes omitted):

Definitions:
p = modeled probability of hitting the lane target before the lane stop (proxy from historical analog contexts)
R = lane reward-to-risk multiple for that entry/stop/target
EV = p Γ— R βˆ’ (1 βˆ’ p) (per 1R)

R/R Labels:
Baseline Setup R/R uses current price + broader ATR-based stop (context)
Lane R/R uses each lane’s own entry/stop/target (action model)

Lane Entry Target Stop Reward Risk R/R Ratio Probability Expectancy
πŸš€ Breakout $102.45 $104.48 $99.38 $2.03 $3.07 0.66:1 65% 0.08
πŸ“‰ Deep Pullback $96.98 $102.45 $90.13 $5.47 $6.85 0.80:1 55% -0.01

πŸ’‘ Recommendation:
πŸš€ Wait for breakout above $102.45 – Breakout Lane has EV 0.08R.

πŸ“ Expectancy Calculation (EV per 1R): EV = p Γ— R βˆ’ (1 βˆ’ p)
– Higher EV = better average edge per unit risk (1R)
– Breakeven win rate: p = 1 / (1 + R)
– Pullback Lane: Wider stops, better entry, potentially higher R
– Breakout Lane: Tighter stops, confirmation required, potentially higher p
– Current Lane: Immediate entry, typically lower edge vs planned entries

πŸ“Œ Breakout Multi-Target Variant (simple model)
– T1 R: 0.66R, T2 R: 2.36R (T2 = T1Γ—1.05)
– 50/50 scale-out effective R: 1.51R
– EV (using same p): 0.63R | Breakeven p: 40%
(This is an illustrative payoff curve; actual multi-target probabilities may differ.)

Note: The summary table at the top of the report shows simplified lane comparison; this section provides full details including stop-loss levels.

🎯 Current Analysis

Current Position: AIR is in the RESISTANCE_ZONE at $101.08, 0.4% below its high

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $102.45

πŸ“‹ Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: HOLD_PROTECT (HIGH) β€” RSI is elevated near resistance; protect gains (trim/hedge) while maintaining core exposure.
New Entry: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION (LOW) β€” Positive EV (0.08R). Trigger > $102.45.

πŸ” Confidence: MEDIUM

πŸ“ˆ Historical Success: 0.65

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward: 0.44

πŸ“‹ Trading Scenarios

Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:

🎯 FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $102.45

🎯 FINAL_ACTION

Primary Setup: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $102.45

πŸš€ Breakout Entry (FINAL_ACTION)

Entry trigger: Breakout > $102.45 (confirm with volume)
Targets: $104.48 β†’ $109.70
Stop: $99.38 (tight; breakout invalidation)

Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to first target

πŸ“Š Comprehensive Volume Analysis

Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure

πŸ“ˆ Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +7,314,501
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+7,314,501)

OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).

VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence

🟑 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals

Timeframe Signal Weight Interpretation
5-Day Neutral High Immediate institutional positioning
14-Day Neutral Medium Swing accumulation/distribution
30-Day Neutral Medium Trend-level volume commitment

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.

Volume Activity Metrics

⬆️ Relative Volume: 1.23x
vs. 20-Day Average: +23.5%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 1.01 (Neutral)

🚨 Volume-Price Divergence Analysis

Severity: Strong
Type: Bullish Confirmation (confidence +15%)

Signals:
– βœ… BULLISH CONFIRMATION: Price rising +22.1% with OBV climbing +24.9x avg volume – strong accumulation
– 🚨 MAJOR ACCUMULATION: OBV change is 24.9x average daily volume ($0.7B)

Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.

πŸ’‘ Volume Integration with Price Zones

Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
Near Resistance + Distribution: High riskβ€”institutions may be selling into strength
Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signalβ€”institutions building positions
Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trendβ€”likely to sustain
Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warningβ€”potential reversal imminent

Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.

πŸ“Š Moving Average Cluster Analysis

Current MA Positioning

MA Period Price Distance Slope Direction Support Quality
SMA10 $92.48 -8.5% +7.46% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong
SMA20 $88.14 -12.8% +4.53% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong
SMA50 $84.39 -16.5% +1.60% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong
SMA200 $73.93 -26.9% +1.05% πŸ“ˆ Rising Strong

🎯 Detected MA Clusters

No significant MA clusters detected. Moving averages are well-distributed, suggesting clear individual support/resistance levels rather than convergence zones.

🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets

1️⃣ Primary Target: $92.48 (8.5% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA10
  • Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 115)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA10 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
  • What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach

2️⃣ Secondary Target: $88.14 (12.8% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA20
  • Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 105)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
  • What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $84.39 (16.5% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA50
  • Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 85)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
  • What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

4️⃣ Tertiary #2 Target: $73.93 (26.9% pullback)

  • MA Level: SMA200
  • Probability: LOW (Priority Score: 65)
  • MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising strong
  • Risk/Reward: High-confidence support if reached, but large pullback required
  • What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

πŸ’‘ MA Cluster Alignment (Governed by FINAL_ACTION)

FINAL_ACTION: WAIT_FOR_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION > $102.45
Alignment: Neutral
Note: MA pullback targets provide context (support levels) while the primary plan remains a breakout trigger.


πŸ”„ Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)

Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.

Peers Analyzed: 1 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)

Target vs. Sector Performance

Metric AIR Sector Avg Relative Status
5-Day Change +6.70% +5.28% +1.42pp πŸ“ˆ Outperforming
10-Day Change +22.09% +11.22% +10.87pp πŸ“ˆ Outperforming

Peer Momentum Breakdown

Ticker 5-Day 10-Day
HXL +5.28% +11.22%

πŸ’‘ Interpretation

βœ… Company-specific strength: AIR is outpacing peers, suggesting idiosyncratic positive factors beyond sector trends.

Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The peer companies were selected based on their business operations in the aerospace, defense, and aviation services industries. These companies provide similar services such as maintenance, repair, and overhaul, and operate in similar markets.

πŸ’Ό Investment Considerations

  • 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $94.95 (value zone) to $89.88 (deep value) with wide stops ($90.13) to manage downside. Current price at $101.08 is 0.4% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
  • ⚑ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $102.45 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Aerospace & Defense sector trends.
  • 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but AIR’s high relative volatility (69.0th percentile) suggests bigger swingsβ€”diversify and stay cautious.

πŸ”¬ Methodology

This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies AIR’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
πŸ“Š Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where AIR historically breaks out or reverses, using 1254 days of data (since ~2022).
πŸ“ˆ Volatility Adjustment: Compares AIR’s 30-day volatility (34.4%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 69.0th percentile, no major zone adjustments.
⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.4% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
πŸ“Š Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
πŸ“ Metrics: Daily Volatility (Οƒ) 2.17% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.4:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.

The analysis is robust (1254 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.

🏒 About AAR Corp.

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets worldwide. The Aviation Services segment offers aftermarket support and services; inventory management and distribution services; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul, as well as engineering services. This segment also sells and leases new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts, and components; and provides inventory and repair programs, warranty claim management, and outsourcing progra…

πŸ“Š Understanding Expectancy

What is Expectancy (EV)? Expectancy represents your average profit per unit of risk (1R) across many similar trades.

Definition (per 1R):
EV = p Γ— R βˆ’ (1 βˆ’ p)
p = win probability
R = reward-to-risk multiple (e.g., R=2.0 means +2R on wins, βˆ’1R on losses)

Breakeven win rate:
p = 1 / (1 + R) β†’ for the BREAKOUT lane here, breakeven is 60%

Worked example with AIR (BREAKOUT lane)

Assume 100 trades, risking $100 each (total risk = $10000):
– Expected win profit: p Γ— N Γ— $risk Γ— R = $4290
– Expected losses: (1βˆ’p) Γ— N Γ— $risk = βˆ’$3500
– Expected net: EV Γ— N Γ— $risk = $790
– Expected per trade: EV Γ— $risk = $8

How to use this: The system recommends the lane with the highest EV because, statistically, it offers the best risk-adjusted edge (per 1R). Individual outcomes will vary.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like AIR involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.


Report generated on January 15, 2026

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