📈 SBH Price Movement Analysis Report for Retail Investors
🏢 Company Overview
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail
This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for SBH. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-29, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to SBH’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
📊 Key Data Points
- Symbol: SBH
- Analysis Date: 2025-12-29
- Current Price: $14.52
- 1-Month High: $16.46 (reached on 2025-11-28 00:00:00)
- Distance from High: 11.8%
📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
- Short-term (5 days): Fast pullback (-5.3% in 5 days)
- Medium-term (3 months): Downtrend (-12.5% in 3 months)
- Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+29.9% in 12 months)
Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-12-22 00:00:00 to 2025-12-29, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: MIXED at FAST pace.
📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).
Current RSI Status
🟢 Neutral Zone
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 40.2 | Neutral |
| Signal | 🟢 Neutral | RSI at 40.2 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity |
Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for SBH without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals
Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.
Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.
⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 15 – Dec 29, 2025))
⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (moderate_microstructure_edge)
| Signal | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Range Compression | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Volume Activity | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Wick Patterns | 4 upper rejections vs 0 lower absorptions – selling pressure at highs | 4 rejections / 0 absorptions |
| 🔵 Candlestick Patterns | Pattern cluster: multiple shooting stars (bearish reversal), indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops) | 6 patterns |
Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a moderate microstructure edge, suggesting that this is not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity further supports a wait-and-see approach rather than immediate action.
Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).
Pattern Formation Timeline
Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🔴 Shooting Star: Dec 16, Dec 22 (bearish reversal signals)
– ⚪ Doji: Dec 16, Dec 18, Dec 22 (indecision)
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Dec 18 (indecision)
Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Dec 16, Dec 18, Dec 22, Dec 24 (selling pressure)
Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 15 – Dec 29, 2025) for timing signals.
📉 Volatility and Market Context
SBH’s price movements are classified as “Very High (Small-caps, biotech)” with an annualized volatility of 49.9% and a typical daily price swing of 3.14% ($0.46). This means SBH can move about 3.14% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.
- 🎯 Relative Volatility: SBH’s current volatility ranks in the 100.0th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means SBH’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 100.0% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
- 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $687.14, 1.4% above its 50-day moving average ($677.82). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
| Metric | Value | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 📊 Stock Volatility | 49.9% (annualized) | Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward |
| 📅 Daily Volatility (σ) | 3.14% ($0.46) | Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context |
| 🎯 Volatility vs. SPY | 100.0th percentile | higher risk than the market |
| 📈 Market Trend | neutral (1.4% vs. SMA50) | Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk. |
| ⚖️ Current Setup R/R | 1.19:1 | Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section) |
🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones
This analysis uses SBH’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($16.46). These zones are adjusted for SBH’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).
| Zone | Distance (%) | Price Level | Trading Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Resistance | 1.4 | $16.23 | Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely |
| 🟡 Caution | 3.5 | $15.88 | Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals |
| 🟢 Sweet Spot | 8.1 | $15.13 | Optimal buy zone with 27.0% success rate |
| 💎 Value | 12.7 | $14.37 | Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone |
| 🔵 Deep Value | 15.7 | $13.88 | Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts |
| ⚠️ Extreme Value | 17.6 | $13.56 | Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst |
| 🚨 Crash Zone | >30% | Below extreme | Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor |
📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When SBH was specifically at 8.1% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 27.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 0.9:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).
Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.
🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)
Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.
This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when SBH was in similar price contexts:
📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 20.9%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress
📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 49.6%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Binary Success | 20.9% | 157 samples – moderate confidence |
| Graded Success | 49.6% | 157 samples – moderate confidence |
| Improvement | +28.7 points | Graded method captures partial gains |
📊 Confidence Breakdown (44.6/100 – Low):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 120.9 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.4/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.6)
– Consistency: 4.2/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes
🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 157 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 120.9 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 76.4% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 20.9% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: No (N/A% max prevents overconfidence)
📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 49.6% vs binary 20.9% (improvement: +28.7pp) shows that even when $SBH doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.
💰 Price Targets and Risk Management
These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on SBH’s daily volatility (ATR).
| Target Type | Price Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Optimal Buy | $15.13 | Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward. |
| 🟢 Good Value | $14.37 | Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback. |
| 🟢 Deep Value | $13.88 | Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news). |
| 🔴 Reduce Position | $15.88 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $16.23 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $16.62 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $16.95 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 10-25% (Value zone) (Current price) | Low confidence due to VALUE_ZONE. |
Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).
⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)
Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.
Risk/Reward Analysis
🟠 Quality Assessment: Marginal (1.19:1)
| Component | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Price | $14.52 | Current market price for SBH |
| Target Price | $16.95 | Projected resistance or breakout level |
| Stop Loss | $12.47 | Risk management exit point |
| Potential Reward | $2.43 | Target – Entry |
| Potential Risk | $2.05 | Entry – Stop |
| R/R Ratio | 1.19:1 | Reward divided by Risk |
Calculation Breakdown
Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)
Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $16.95 (target) – $14.52 (entry) = $2.43
2. Risk = $14.52 (entry) – $12.47 (stop) = $2.05
3. Ratio = $2.43 / $2.05 = 1.19:1
Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($12.47)
14-Day ATR: $0.47 (~3.2% of entry price) – stop is 4.4x ATR for volatility adjustment
💡 Interpretation
A ratio between 1.0-1.5:1 is marginal – reward barely exceeds risk. Consider waiting for better setup or wider targets.
Position Sizing Guidance: With a 1.19:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 1.19% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).
Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.
🎯 Current Analysis
Current Position: SBH is in the VALUE_ZONE at $14.52, 11.8% below its high
📋 Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: HOLD (LOW) — Maintain exposure per the broader trend; manage risk with stops and sizing.
New Entry: WAIT (LOW) — Entry guidance follows the current-zone recommendation.
🔍 Confidence: LOW
📈 Historical Success: 0.5
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1.19
📋 Trading Scenarios
Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:
🚀 Scenario B: Breakout Entry (Momentum)
Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry
Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $16.62 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout
Position Setup:
– Entry: $16.62 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $16.54
– Initial Target: $16.95 (strong breakout – take 50% profit)
– Extended Target: $17.80 (momentum continuation – let 50% run)
– Stop Loss: $16.12 (3% below breakout entry)
– Why this stop? Breakout entries require tight stops at invalidation point; if price falls below breakout level, setup failed and we exit immediately
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)
Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to initial target
Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)
⚡ Scenario C: Current Price Entry (SUBOPTIMAL)
Best for: Traders who must enter now or want to start scaling in
Entry Conditions:
– Current Price: $14.52
– ✅ In value zone – reasonable entry
– ⚠️ Wait for volume confirmation
Position Setup:
– Entry: $14.52 (current market)
– Initial Target: $16.62 (breakout confirmation level)
– Extended Target: $16.95 (strong breakout level)
– Stop Loss: $12.47 (normal ATR-based stop)
– Why normal stop? Entry at current price uses standard ATR protection; balances risk management with avoiding premature stop-outs from normal volatility
– Alternative: $13.38 (tight stop for aggressive traders)
– Position Size: 25-50% (scale in if possible)
Risk/Reward: ~0.9:1 with normal stop
Why This is SUBOPTIMAL:
– Entry between zones – better prices available
– Consider scaling: 30% now, add 40% at $15.13, final 30% at $14.37
– Scaling in reduces average cost and risk
⏸️ Scenario D: Wait for Better Setup
Best for: Disciplined traders who wait for optimal entries
Current Situation:
– Price: $14.52 (in Value Zone)
– New Entry Action: Wait
– Issue: Risk/reward not favorable at current levels
Action Plan:
1. Add to watchlist – Don’t enter yet
2. Set alerts:
– Pullback alert at $15.13 (entry opportunity)
– Breakout alert at $16.62 (momentum confirmation)
3. Monitor for:
– Volume patterns (watch for accumulation vs distribution)
– Sector trends and correlations
– News catalysts or earnings reports
Wait For:
– Pullback to $15.13-$14.37 (better R/R), OR
– Confirmed breakout above $16.62 with volume
Why Wait:
– Current price offers poor risk/reward
– Better entries exist at defined levels
– Wait for better technical setup or fundamental catalyst
📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis
Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure
📈 Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +3,936,707
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+3,936,707)
OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).
VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence
🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals
| Timeframe | Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day | Neutral | High | Immediate institutional positioning |
| 14-Day | Neutral | Medium | Swing accumulation/distribution |
| 30-Day | Neutral | Medium | Trend-level volume commitment |
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.
Volume Activity Metrics
⬇️ Relative Volume: 0.17x
vs. 20-Day Average: -83.0%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 1.01 (Neutral)
ℹ️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis
Severity: Mild
Type: Bullish (confidence +5%)
Signals:
– ✅ Volume supporting price weakness – potential bottom forming
Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.
💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones
Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent
Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.
📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis
Current MA Positioning
| MA Period | Price | Distance | Slope | Direction | Support Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA10 | $15.03 | +3.5% | -1.84% | 📉 Falling | – |
| SMA20 | $15.34 | +5.6% | -1.22% | 📉 Falling | – |
| SMA50 | $15.01 | +3.4% | +0.16% | ➡️ Flat | – |
| SMA200 | $11.91 | -18.0% | +1.22% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
🎯 Detected MA Clusters
VERY_STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA50 + SMA10 + SMA20 converging at $15.13 (4.2% above current price)
– 3 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: VERY_STRONG
– Interpretation: Price currently below cluster resistance. Potential pullback zone if rejected.
🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets
1️⃣ Primary Target: $11.91 (18.0% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA200
- Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 85)
- MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
- What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach
💡 Trading Recommendation
Action: Watch For Pullback
Confidence: HIGH
Primary Entry: $11.91 (SMA200 support)
Entry Strategy:
Watch for price action at $11.91 (-18.0% from current). Look for bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.).
Risk Management:
– Stop loss below primary target (suggest $11.67 range)
– Target: Return to cluster zone at $15.13
– Risk/Reward: Pullback plan: 0.8-1.2:1 (depends on exact entry within pullback range)
Confirmation Signals:
– Decreasing volume on pullback
– Bullish reversal candlestick at support level
– RSI oversold condition (<40)
– Higher volume on bounce
🔄 Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)
Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.
Peers Analyzed: 1 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)
Target vs. Sector Performance
| Metric | SBH | Sector Avg | Relative | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Change | -5.28% | -6.75% | +1.47pp | 📈 Outperforming |
| 10-Day Change | -2.62% | -5.59% | +2.97pp | 📈 Outperforming |
Peer Momentum Breakdown
| Ticker | 5-Day | 10-Day |
|---|---|---|
| COTY | -6.75% | -5.59% |
💡 Interpretation
✅ Company-specific strength: SBH is outpacing peers, suggesting idiosyncratic positive factors beyond sector trends.
Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The selected peers are all companies that operate in the beauty industry, with a focus on cosmetics, skincare, and hair care products. They were chosen based on their similar business models, product mix, and market positioning to Sally Beauty Holdings. The confidence scores reflect the degree of similarity between each peer and Sally Beauty Holdings.
💼 Investment Considerations
- 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $14.37 (value zone) to $13.88 (deep value) with wide stops ($11.55) to manage downside. Current price at $14.52 is 11.8% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
- ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $16.62 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Specialty Retail sector trends.
- 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but SBH’s high relative volatility (100.0th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.
🔬 Methodology
This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies SBH’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where SBH historically breaks out or reverses, using 1255 days of data (since ~2021).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares SBH’s 30-day volatility (49.9%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 100.0th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.4% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 3.14% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 0.9:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.
The analysis is robust (1255 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.
🏢 About Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty products for retail customers, salons, and salon professionals. This segment also provides products under third-party brands, such as Wella, Cla…
⚠️ Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like SBH involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Report generated on December 29, 2025
