📈 INDV Price Movement Analysis Report for Retail Investors

🏢 Company Overview

Indivior PLC | Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Drug Manufacturers – Specialty & Generic

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This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for INDV. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-29, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to INDV’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

📊 Key Data Points

• Symbol: INDV
• Analysis Date: 2025-12-29
• Current Price: $36.21
• 1-Month High: $38.0 (reached on 2025-12-08 00:00:00)
• Distance from High: 4.7%

📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

• Short-term (5 days): Mild rally (+2.8% in 5 days)
• Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+55.7% in 3 months)
• Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+202.0% in 12 months)

Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-12-19 00:00:00 to 2025-12-29, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: MIXED at NORMAL pace.

📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).

Current RSI Status

🟢 Neutral Zone

Metric	Value	Interpretation
RSI (14-day)	66.2	Neutral
Signal	🟢 Neutral	RSI at 66.2 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity

Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for INDV without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals

Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.

Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.

⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 12 – Dec 26, 2025))

⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (moderate_microstructure_edge)

Signal	Status	Value
🔵 Range Compression	Normal	0.000
🔵 Volume Activity	Normal	0.000
🔵 Wick Patterns	3 rejections vs 2 absorptions – balanced battle	3 rejections / 2 absorptions
🔵 Candlestick Patterns	Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops)	5 patterns

Battle Dynamics: ### Battle Dynamics
The wick analysis reveals a bearish rejection bias, with sellers aggressively defending higher levels, as evidenced by three upper rejections. The candlestick patterns, dominated by dojis and spinning tops, highlight market indecision, reinforcing a neutral sentiment. Despite this, the directional bias is bearish, indicating that bears currently have the upper hand in the battle.

Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).

Pattern Formation Timeline

Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– ⚪ Doji: Dec 23, Dec 26 (indecision)
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Dec 23, Dec 24, Dec 26 (indecision)

Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Dec 19, Dec 23, Dec 26 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Dec 17, Dec 24 (buying support)

Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 12 – Dec 26, 2025) for timing signals.

📉 Volatility and Market Context

INDV’s price movements are classified as “Very High (Small-caps, biotech)” with an annualized volatility of 264.7% and a typical daily price swing of 16.67% ($6.04). This means INDV can move about 16.67% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.

• 🎯 Relative Volatility: INDV’s current volatility ranks in the 100th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means INDV’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 100% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
• 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $690.31, 1.9% above its 50-day moving average ($677.29). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.

Metric	Value	Explanation
📊 Stock Volatility	264.7% (annualized)	Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward
📅 Daily Volatility (σ)	16.67% ($6.04)	Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context
🎯 Volatility vs. SPY	100th percentile	higher risk than the market
📈 Market Trend	neutral (1.9% vs. SMA50)	Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk.
⚖️ Current Setup R/R	0.11:1	Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section)

🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones

This analysis uses INDV’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($38.0). These zones are adjusted for INDV’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).

Zone	Distance (%)	Price Level	Trading Insight
🔴 Resistance	5.0	$36.1	Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely
🟡 Caution	10.0	$34.2	Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals
🟢 Sweet Spot	25.0	$28.5	Optimal buy zone with 48.0% success rate
💎 Value	40.0	$22.8	Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone
🔵 Deep Value	25.0	$28.5	Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts
⚠️ Extreme Value	30.0	$26.6	Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst
🚨 Crash Zone	>30%	Below extreme	Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor

📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When INDV was specifically at 25.0% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 48.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.6:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).

Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.

🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)

Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.

This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when INDV was in similar price contexts:

📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 55.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress

📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 65.0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets

Metric	Value	Notes
Binary Success	55.0%	28 samples – moderate confidence
Graded Success	65.0%	28 samples – moderate confidence
Improvement	+10.0 points	Graded method captures partial gains

📊 Confidence Breakdown (44.4/100 – Low):
– Sample Size: 22.4/40 points – Based on 19.4 weighted samples
– Quality: 2.0/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.92)
– Consistency: 20.0/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes

🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 28 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 19.4 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 100.0% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 100.0% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)

📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $INDV doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.

💰 Price Targets and Risk Management

These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on INDV’s daily volatility (ATR).

Target Type	Price Level	Notes
🟢 Optimal Buy	$28.5	Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward.
🟢 Good Value	$22.8	Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback.
🟢 Deep Value	$28.5	Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news).

| 🔴 Reduce Position | $34.2 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $36.1 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $38.38 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $39.14 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 5-10% (Near resistance) (Current price) | Low confidence due to RESISTANCE_ZONE. |

Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).

⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)

Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.

Risk/Reward Analysis

🔴 Quality Assessment: Poor (0.11:1)

Component	Value	Notes
Entry Price	$36.21	Current market price for INDV
Target Price	$39.14	Projected resistance or breakout level
Stop Loss	$9.04	Risk management exit point
Potential Reward	$2.93	Target – Entry
Potential Risk	$27.17	Entry – Stop
R/R Ratio	0.11:1	Reward divided by Risk

Calculation Breakdown

Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)

Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $39.14 (target) – $36.21 (entry) = $2.93
2. Risk = $36.21 (entry) – $9.04 (stop) = $27.17
3. Ratio = $2.93 / $27.17 = 0.11:1

Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($9.04)
14-Day ATR: $0.97 (~2.7% of entry price) – stop is 28.0x ATR for volatility adjustment

💡 Interpretation

A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.

Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.11:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.11% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).

Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.

🎯 Current Analysis

Current Position: INDV is in the RESISTANCE_ZONE at $36.21, 4.7% below its high

📋 Recommendations (Two Lanes)
Holder: REDUCE_OR_HEDGE (LOW) — Near resistance; asymmetric risk/reward for adding exposure at current levels.
New Entry: WAIT_FOR_PULLBACK (LOW) — Risk/reward is unfavorable near resistance; wait for pullback into buy zones. Current setup R/R is ~0.11:1; prioritize confirmation over immediacy.

🔍 Confidence: LOW

📈 Historical Success: 0.65

⚖️ Risk/Reward: 0.11

📋 Trading Scenarios

Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:

📉 Scenario A: Pullback Entry (Conservative)

Best for: Patient swing traders seeking optimal risk/reward

Entry Conditions:
– Price pulls back to $28.50 (Sweet Spot) or $22.80 (Value Zone)
– Volume decreases on pullback (no panic selling)
– ⚠️ Confirm OBV stabilizes before entry

Position Setup:
– Entry: $28.50 – $22.80
– Initial Target: $38.38 (breakout confirmation level)
– Extended Target: $39.14 (strong breakout level)
– Stop Loss: $18.09 (wide ATR-based stop)
– Why wide stop? Value entries need room for volatility at support levels; tight stops get shaken out by normal price action before bounce occurs
– Position Size: 75-100% (applies if/when price reaches this pullback entry zone)

Risk/Reward: ~0.95:1 to first target

Why This Works:
– Buying at historical support/value zone
– Better entry price = more cushion to downside
– Waiting for confirmation of support hold

🚀 Scenario B: Breakout Entry (Momentum)

Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry

Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $38.38 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout

Position Setup:
– Entry: $38.38 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $38.19
– Initial Target: $39.14 (strong breakout – take 50% profit)
– Extended Target: $41.10 (momentum continuation – let 50% run)
– Stop Loss: $37.23 (3% below breakout entry)
– Why this stop? Breakout entries require tight stops at invalidation point; if price falls below breakout level, setup failed and we exit immediately
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)

Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to initial target

Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)

⏸️ Scenario C: Wait for Better Setup

Best for: Disciplined traders who wait for optimal entries

Current Situation:
– Price: $36.21 (in Resistance Zone)
– New Entry Action: Wait For Pullback
– Issue: Price near resistance – high rejection risk

Action Plan:
1. Add to watchlist – Don’t enter yet
2. Set alerts:
– Pullback alert at $28.50 (entry opportunity)
– Breakout alert at $38.38 (momentum confirmation)
3. Monitor for:
– Volume patterns (watch for accumulation vs distribution)
– Sector trends and correlations
– News catalysts or earnings reports

Wait For:
– Pullback to $28.50-$22.80 (better R/R), OR
– Confirmed breakout above $38.38 with volume

Why Wait:
– Current price offers poor risk/reward
– Better entries exist at defined levels
– Wait for better technical setup or fundamental catalyst

📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis

Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure

📉 Current Trend: Down
10-Day Net Change: -19,835,138
Interpretation: Bearish – OBV declining over 10 days (-19,835,138)

OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).

VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence

🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals

Timeframe	Signal	Weight	Interpretation
5-Day	Neutral	High	Immediate institutional positioning
14-Day	Neutral	Medium	Swing accumulation/distribution
30-Day	Neutral	Medium	Trend-level volume commitment

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.

Volume Activity Metrics

⬇️ Relative Volume: 0.27x
vs. 20-Day Average: -73.1%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 0.99 (Neutral)

💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones

Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent

Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.

📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis

Current MA Positioning

MA Period	Price	Distance	Slope	Direction	Support Quality
SMA10	$35.80	-1.1%	+0.40%	📈 Rising	Weak
SMA20	$35.34	-2.4%	+2.36%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA50	$31.69	-12.5%	+3.86%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA200	$20.17	-44.3%	+3.38%	📈 Rising	Strong

🎯 Detected MA Clusters

STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA20 + SMA10 converging at $35.57 (1.8% below current price)
– 2 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: STRONG
– Interpretation: Price above cluster support. Strong support zone if tested on pullback.

🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets

1️⃣ Primary Target: $35.57 (1.8% pullback)

• MA Level: UNKNOWN
• Probability: VERY_HIGH (Priority Score: 150)
• MA Characteristics: MA Cluster (SMA20, SMA10) – STRONG support
• Risk/Reward: Uncertain support, deep pullback required
• What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach

2️⃣ Secondary Target: $35.80 (1.1% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA10
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
• MA Characteristics: SMA10 support – rising weak
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $35.34 (2.4% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA20
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
• MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

4️⃣ Tertiary #2 Target: $31.69 (12.5% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA50
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 105)
• MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

5️⃣ Tertiary #3 Target: $20.17 (44.3% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA200
• Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 85)
• MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

💡 Trading Recommendation

Action: Watch For Pullback
Confidence: VERY_HIGH
Primary Entry: $35.57 (MA Cluster: SMA20, SMA10 support)
Secondary Entry: $35.80 (SMA10 support)

Entry Strategy:
Watch for price action at $35.57 (-1.8% from current). Look for bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.).

Risk Management:
– Stop loss below primary target (suggest $34.86 range)
– Risk/Reward: Pullback plan: 0.6-0.8:1 (depends on exact entry within pullback range)

Confirmation Signals:
– Decreasing volume on pullback
– Bullish reversal candlestick at support level
– RSI oversold condition (<40)
– Higher volume on bounce

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🔄 Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)

Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.

Peers Analyzed: 1 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)

Target vs. Sector Performance

Metric	INDV	Sector Avg	Relative	Status
5-Day Change	+2.84%	+2.45%	+0.39pp	📈 Outperforming
10-Day Change	+1.83%	-2.33%	+4.16pp	📈 Outperforming

Peer Momentum Breakdown

Ticker	5-Day	10-Day
ALKS	+2.45%	-2.33%

💡 Interpretation

✅ Company-specific strength: INDV is outpacing peers, suggesting idiosyncratic positive factors beyond sector trends.

Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The peer companies were identified based on their involvement in the development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceuticals for the treatment of substance use disorders and mental illnesses. These companies have similar business models and revenue mix as Indivior.

💼 Investment Considerations

• 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $22.8 (value zone) to $28.5 (deep value) with wide stops ($18.09) to manage downside. Current price at $36.21 is 4.7% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
• ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $38.38 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Drug Manufacturers – Specialty & Generic sector trends.
• 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but INDV’s high relative volatility (100th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.

🔬 Methodology

This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies INDV’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where INDV historically breaks out or reverses, using 1254 days of data (since ~2021).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares INDV’s 30-day volatility (264.7%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 100th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.9% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 16.67% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.6:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.

The analysis is robust (1254 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.

🏢 About Indivior PLC

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Drug Manufacturers – Specialty & Generic

Indivior PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of buprenorphine-based prescription drugs for the treatment of opioid dependence and co-occurring disorders in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company develops medicines to treat substance use disorders, serious mental illnesses, and opioid overdose. Its core marketed products include SUBLOCADE and SUBUTEX PRO buprenorphine extended-release monthly injections; SUBOXONE,…

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like INDV involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Report generated on December 29, 2025