📈 KSS Price Movement Analysis Report for Retail Investors

🏢 Company Overview

Kohl’s Corporation | Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Department Stores

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This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for KSS. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-16, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to KSS’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

📊 Key Data Points

• Symbol: KSS
• Analysis Date: 2025-12-16
• Current Price: $22.18
• 1-Month High: $25.22 (reached on 2025-12-01 00:00:00)
• Distance from High: 12.1%

📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

• Short-term (5 days): Fast pullback (-5.3% in 5 days)
• Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+31.3% in 3 months)
• Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+56.7% in 12 months)

Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-12-09 00:00:00 to 2025-12-16, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: FALLING at FAST pace.

📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).

Current RSI Status

🟢 Neutral Zone

Metric	Value	Interpretation
RSI (14-day)	57.0	Neutral
Signal	🟢 Neutral	RSI at 57.0 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity

Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for KSS without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals

Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.

Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.

⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Dec 02 – Dec 15, 2025))

⚠️ Confluence Score: 2/4 (moderate_microstructure_edge)

Signal	Status	Value
🔵 Range Compression	Normal	0.000
🔵 Volume Activity	Normal	0.000
🔵 Wick Patterns	2 rejections vs 3 absorptions – balanced battle	2 rejections / 3 absorptions
🔵 Candlestick Patterns	Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops)	4 patterns

Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a moderate microstructure edge, suggesting this is not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity further supports a neutral stance, implying that significant price movement is not imminent.

Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).

Pattern Formation Timeline

Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🟢 Hammer: Dec 08 (bullish reversal signals)
– ⚪ Doji: Dec 04 (indecision)
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Dec 04, Dec 11 (indecision)

Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Dec 05, Dec 10 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Dec 02, Dec 04, Dec 08 (buying support)

Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Dec 02 – Dec 15, 2025) for timing signals.

📉 Volatility and Market Context

KSS’s price movements are classified as “Very High (Small-caps, biotech)” with an annualized volatility of 68.3% and a typical daily price swing of 4.31% ($0.96). This means KSS can move about 4.31% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.

• 🎯 Relative Volatility: KSS’s current volatility ranks in the 100th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means KSS’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 100% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
• 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $680.73, 0.9% above its 50-day moving average ($674.64). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.

Metric	Value	Explanation
📊 Stock Volatility	68.3% (annualized)	Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward
📅 Daily Volatility (σ)	4.31% ($0.96)	Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context
🎯 Volatility vs. SPY	100th percentile	higher risk than the market
📈 Market Trend	neutral (0.9% vs. SMA50)	Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk.
⚖️ Current Setup R/R	0.88:1	Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section)

🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones

This analysis uses KSS’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($25.22). These zones are adjusted for KSS’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).

Zone	Distance (%)	Price Level	Trading Insight
🔴 Resistance	1.9	$24.74	Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely
🟡 Caution	4.8	$24.01	Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals
🟢 Sweet Spot	11.0	$22.45	Optimal buy zone with 7.0% success rate
💎 Value	17.3	$20.86	Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone
🔵 Deep Value	22.3	$19.6	Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts
⚠️ Extreme Value	24.1	$19.14	Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst
🚨 Crash Zone	>30%	Below extreme	Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor

📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When KSS was specifically at 11.0% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 7.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 0.2:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).

Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.

🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)

🔴 CRITICAL DATA QUALITY WARNING

Only 0 historical samples found – This is statistically insufficient for reliable predictions.
Success rates below are directional indicators only and should NOT be used as primary decision factors.

Why this matters: With so few samples, a single outlier can dramatically skew results. Industry standard requires minimum 30 samples for statistical significance.

Recommendation: Use fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and market context as primary decision factors. Treat these historical patterns as supplementary information only.

Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.

This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when KSS was in similar price contexts:

📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 40.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress

📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets

Metric	Value	Notes
Binary Success	40.0%	0 samples – statistically unreliable
Graded Success	0%	0 samples – statistically unreliable
Improvement	+0 points	Graded method captures partial gains

📊 Confidence Breakdown (0/100 – Unknown):
– Sample Size: 0/40 points – Based on 0 weighted samples
– Quality: 0/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0)
– Consistency: 0/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes

🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 0 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 0 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 0% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 0% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: No (N/A% max prevents overconfidence)

⚠️ Interpretation: With only 0 samples, these success rates have no statistical validity. The 0% graded success means that in the single instance found, $KSS made approximately 0% progress toward its target. This tells us virtually nothing about future probability.

💰 Price Targets and Risk Management

These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on KSS’s daily volatility (ATR).

Target Type	Price Level	Notes
🟢 Optimal Buy	$22.45	Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward.
🟢 Good Value	$20.86	Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback.
🟢 Deep Value	$19.6	Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news).

| 🔴 Reduce Position | $24.01 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $24.74 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $25.47 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $25.98 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 10-25% (Sweet Spot zone) (Current price) | Low confidence due to SWEET_SPOT_ZONE. |

Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).

⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)

Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.

Risk/Reward Analysis

🔴 Quality Assessment: Poor (0.88:1)

Component	Value	Notes
Entry Price	$22.18	Current market price for KSS
Target Price	$25.98	Projected resistance or breakout level
Stop Loss	$17.88	Risk management exit point
Potential Reward	$3.80	Target – Entry
Potential Risk	$4.30	Entry – Stop
R/R Ratio	0.88:1	Reward divided by Risk

Calculation Breakdown

Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)

Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $25.98 (target) – $22.18 (entry) = $3.80
2. Risk = $22.18 (entry) – $17.88 (stop) = $4.30
3. Ratio = $3.80 / $4.30 = 0.88:1

Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($17.88)
14-Day ATR: $1.71 (~7.7% of entry price) – stop is 2.5x ATR for volatility adjustment

💡 Interpretation

A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.

Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.88:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.88% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).

Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.

🎯 Current Analysis

Current Position: KSS is in the SWEET_SPOT_ZONE at $22.18, 12.1% below its high

📋 Recommendation: WAIT_FOR_CONFIRMATION

💡 Explanation: Price in SWEET_SPOT_ZONE zone. Market regime: Extreme parabolic move – historical patterns unreliable. Strong downward momentum (-5.2% 5-day) – wait for stabilization signs.

🔍 Confidence: LOW

📈 Historical Success: 0.4

⚖️ Risk/Reward: 0.88

📋 Trading Scenarios

Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:

🚀 Scenario B: Breakout Entry (Momentum)

Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry

Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $25.47 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout

Position Setup:
– Entry: $25.47 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $25.34
– Initial Target: $25.98 (strong breakout – take 50% profit)
– Extended Target: $27.28 (momentum continuation – let 50% run)
– Stop Loss: $24.71 (3% below breakout entry)
– Why this stop? Breakout entries require tight stops at invalidation point; if price falls below breakout level, setup failed and we exit immediately
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)

Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to initial target

Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)

⚡ Scenario C: Current Price Entry (SUBOPTIMAL)

Best for: Traders who must enter now or want to start scaling in

Entry Conditions:
– Current Price: $22.18
– ✅ Between optimal zones – acceptable but not ideal
– ⚠️ Wait for volume confirmation

Position Setup:
– Entry: $22.18 (current market)
– Initial Target: $25.47 (breakout confirmation level)
– Extended Target: $25.98 (strong breakout level)
– Stop Loss: $17.88 (normal ATR-based stop)
– Why normal stop? Entry at current price uses standard ATR protection; balances risk management with avoiding premature stop-outs from normal volatility
– Alternative: $19.79 (tight stop for aggressive traders)
– Position Size: 25-50% (scale in if possible)

Risk/Reward: ~0.6:1 with normal stop

Why This is SUBOPTIMAL:
– Entry between zones – better prices available
– Consider scaling: 30% now, add 40% at $22.45, final 30% at $20.86
– Scaling in reduces average cost and risk

📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis

Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure

📉 Current Trend: Down
10-Day Net Change: -6,641,280
Interpretation: Bearish – OBV declining over 10 days (-6,641,280)

OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).

VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence

🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals

Timeframe	Signal	Weight	Interpretation
5-Day	Neutral	High	Immediate institutional positioning
14-Day	Neutral	Medium	Swing accumulation/distribution
30-Day	Neutral	Medium	Trend-level volume commitment

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.

Volume Activity Metrics

⬇️ Relative Volume: 0.66x
vs. 20-Day Average: -34.4%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 1.01 (Neutral)

ℹ️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis

Severity: Mild
Type: Bearish Confirmation (confidence -5%)

Signals:
– ⚠️ EXTREME VOL ALERT: Price falling -10.2% with OBV declining -1.1x (≥0.25× avg) in ≥95th percentile volatility
– ⚠️ EXTREME VOL WATCH: Price falling -10.2% with OBV declining -1.1x (≥0.10× avg) in ≥95th percentile volatility

Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.

💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones

Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent

Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.

📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis

Current MA Positioning

MA Period	Price	Distance	Slope	Direction	Support Quality
SMA10	$23.24	+4.8%	+2.39%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA20	$21.06	-5.0%	+7.17%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA50	$18.22	-17.9%	+4.17%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA200	$12.44	-43.9%	+2.36%	📈 Rising	Strong

🎯 Detected MA Clusters

No significant MA clusters detected. Moving averages are well-distributed, suggesting clear individual support/resistance levels rather than convergence zones.

🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets

1️⃣ Primary Target: $21.06 (5.0% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA20
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
• MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach

2️⃣ Secondary Target: $18.22 (17.9% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA50
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 105)
• MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $12.44 (43.9% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA200
• Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 85)
• MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

💡 Trading Recommendation

Action: Watch For Pullback
Confidence: HIGH
Primary Entry: $21.06 (SMA20 support)
Secondary Entry: $18.22 (SMA50 support)

Entry Strategy:
Watch for price action at $21.06 (-5.0% from current). Look for bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.).

Risk Management:
– Stop loss below primary target (suggest $20.64 range)
– Risk/Reward: Pullback plan: 0.6-0.8:1 (depends on exact entry within pullback range)

Confirmation Signals:
– Decreasing volume on pullback
– Bullish reversal candlestick at support level
– RSI oversold condition (<40)
– Higher volume on bounce

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🔄 Peer Momentum Comparison (RFC-008)

Understanding relative performance vs. sector peers clarifies whether price movement is company-specific or sector-wide.

Peers Analyzed: 1 (LLM-discovered, programmatically validated)

Target vs. Sector Performance

Metric	KSS	Sector Avg	Relative	Status
5-Day Change	-5.25%	+7.73%	-12.98pp	📉 Underperforming
10-Day Change	-10.24%	+4.47%	-14.71pp	📉 Underperforming

Peer Momentum Breakdown

Ticker	5-Day	10-Day
M	+7.73%	+4.47%

💡 Interpretation

⚠️ Company-specific weakness: KSS is lagging peers, indicating potential company-level issues or missed opportunities relative to sector.

Discovery Method: LLM-driven peer identification with programmatic validation (sector match, market cap band 0.25x-4x).
The selected peers are all retail companies operating in the United States with a strong online presence. They offer similar product categories as Kohl’s and face similar market dynamics and challenges.

💼 Investment Considerations

• 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $20.86 (value zone) to $19.6 (deep value) with wide stops ($15.97) to manage downside. Current price at $22.18 is 12.1% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
• ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $25.47 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Department Stores sector trends.
• 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but KSS’s high relative volatility (100th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.

🔬 Methodology

This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies KSS’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where KSS historically breaks out or reverses, using 1254 days of data (since ~2021).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares KSS’s 30-day volatility (68.3%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 100th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (0.9% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 4.31% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 0.2:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.

The analysis is robust (1254 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.

🏢 About Kohl’s Corporation

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Department Stores

Kohl’s Corporation operates as a retail company in the United States. It offers branded apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty, and home products through its stores and website. The company provides its products primarily under the brand names of Apt. 9, Croft & Barrow, Jumping Beans, SO, and Sonoma Goods for Life, as well as Food Network, LC Lauren Conrad, Nine West, and Simply Vera Vera Wang. As of March 21, 2022, it operated approximately 1,100 Kohl’s stores and a website http://www.Kohls.com. Kohl’…

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like KSS involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Report generated on December 16, 2025