π KYMR Price Movement Analysis Report for Retail Investors
π’ Company Overview
Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology
This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for KYMR. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-03, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to KYMR’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial adviceβalways conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
π Key Data Points
- Symbol: KYMR
- Analysis Date: 2025-12-03
- Current Price: $65.99
- 1-Month High: $68.8 (reached on 2025-11-24 00:00:00)
- Distance from High: 4.1%
π Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
- Short-term (5 days): Mild decline (-2.8% in 5 days)
- Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+51.8% in 3 months)
- Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+38.2% in 12 months)
Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-11-26 00:00:00 to 2025-12-03, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: MIXED at NORMAL pace.
π RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).
Current RSI Status
π’ Neutral Zone
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 58.6 | Neutral |
| Signal | π’ Neutral | RSI at 58.6 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity |
Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for KYMR without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals
Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.
Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg Γ 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.
β±οΈ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Nov 19 – Dec 03, 2025))
β οΈ Confluence Score: 2/4 (moderate_microstructure_edge)
| Signal | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|
| π΅ Range Compression | Normal | 0.000 |
| π΅ Volume Activity | Normal | 0.000 |
| π΅ Wick Patterns | 3 rejections vs 2 absorptions – balanced battle | 3 rejections / 2 absorptions |
| π΅ Candlestick Patterns | Pattern cluster: indecision patterns (doji/spinning tops) | 6 patterns |
Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 2/4 indicates a moderate microstructure edge, suggesting that this is not a high-conviction setup. The current intraday state of chop and lack of range compression further support a cautious approach, as there is no clear directional momentum.
Timing: Moderate edge present. Monitor for additional signal convergence before acting (3-7 days).
Pattern Formation Timeline
Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– π΄ Shooting Star: Nov 19 (bearish reversal signals)
– π’ Hammer: Nov 28 (bullish reversal signals)
– βͺ Doji: Nov 25, Dec 01 (indecision)
– π΅ Spinning Top: Nov 25, Dec 01 (indecision)
Wick Events:
– β¬οΈ Upper Rejections: Nov 19, Nov 20, Dec 01 (selling pressure)
– β¬οΈ Lower Absorptions: Nov 25, Nov 28 (buying support)
Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Nov 19 – Dec 03, 2025) for timing signals.
π Volatility and Market Context
KYMR’s price movements are classified as “Very High (Small-caps, biotech)” with an annualized volatility of 75.1% and a typical daily price swing of 4.73% ($3.12). This means KYMR can move about 4.73% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.
- π― Relative Volatility: KYMR’s current volatility ranks in the 100th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means KYMR’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 100% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
- π Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $683.89, 1.8% above its 50-day moving average ($671.48). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
| Metric | Value | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| π Stock Volatility | 75.1% (annualized) | Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward |
| π Daily Volatility (Ο) | 4.73% ($3.12) | Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context |
| π― Volatility vs. SPY | 100th percentile | higher risk than the market |
| π Market Trend | neutral (1.8% vs. SMA50) | Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk. |
| βοΈ Current Setup R/R | 0.35:1 | Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section) |
π― Price-Based Trading Zones
This analysis uses KYMR’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($68.8). These zones are adjusted for KYMR’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).
| Zone | Distance (%) | Price Level | Trading Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| π΄ Resistance | 2.6 | $67.01 | Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely |
| π‘ Caution | 5.3 | $65.15 | Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals |
| π’ Sweet Spot | 12.2 | $60.41 | Optimal buy zone with 38.0% success rate |
| π Value | 19.0 | $55.73 | Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone |
| π΅ Deep Value | 24.0 | $52.29 | Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts |
| β οΈ Extreme Value | 26.5 | $50.57 | Severe oversold; high crash riskβwait for catalyst |
| π¨ Crash Zone | >30% | Below extreme | Critical danger zoneβavoid unless deep value investor |
π Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When KYMR was specifically at 12.2% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 38.0% of the time, with 30.0% crashing (β10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.3:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).
Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.
π― Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)
Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contextsβmatching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zoneβnot just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.
This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when KYMR was in similar price contexts:
π Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 55.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress
π Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– π’ 100% = Made new high (full success)
– π‘ 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– π‘ 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– π 50% = Reached halfway point
– π΄ 25% = Made 25% progress
– β 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 65.0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Binary Success | 55.0% | 164 samples – moderate confidence |
| Graded Success | 65.0% | 164 samples – moderate confidence |
| Improvement | +10.0 points | Graded method captures partial gains |
π Confidence Breakdown (42.9/100 – Low):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 124.8 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.3/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.66)
– Consistency: 2.6/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes
π Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 164 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 124.8 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 81.2% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 68.5% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)
π What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $KYMR doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.
π° Price Targets and Risk Management
These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on KYMR’s daily volatility (ATR).
| Target Type | Price Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| π’ Optimal Buy | $60.41 | Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward. |
| π’ Good Value | $55.73 | Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback. |
| π’ Deep Value | $52.29 | Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news). |
| π΄ Reduce Position | $65.15 | In caution zoneβscale back exposure. |
| π΄ Exit/Hedge | $67.01 | Near resistanceβconsider selling or hedging. |
| π Breakout Confirmation | $69.49 | 1% above highβsignals new uptrend. |
| π Strong Breakout | $70.86 | 3% above highβconfirms bullish momentum. |
| π Position Sizing | 5-10% (Caution zone) (Current price) | Low confidence due to CAUTION_ZONE. |
Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).
βοΈ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)
Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.
Risk/Reward Analysis
π΄ Quality Assessment: Poor (0.35:1)
| Component | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Price | $65.99 | Current market price for KYMR |
| Target Price | $70.86 | Projected resistance or breakout level |
| Stop Loss | $51.94 | Risk management exit point |
| Potential Reward | $4.87 | Target – Entry |
| Potential Risk | $14.05 | Entry – Stop |
| R/R Ratio | 0.35:1 | Reward divided by Risk |
Calculation Breakdown
Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)
Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $70.86 (target) – $65.99 (entry) = $4.87
2. Risk = $65.99 (entry) – $51.94 (stop) = $14.05
3. Ratio = $4.87 / $14.05 = 0.35:1
Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($51.94)
14-Day ATR: $3.19 (~4.8% of entry price) – stop is 4.4x ATR for volatility adjustment
π‘ Interpretation
A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.
Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.35:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.35% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).
Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.
π― Current Analysis
Current Position: KYMR is in the CAUTION_ZONE at $65.99, 4.1% below its high
π Recommendation: BE_CAUTIOUS
π‘ Explanation: Price in CAUTION_ZONE with favorable historical performance (55% breakout rate).
π Confidence: LOW
π Historical Success: 0.65
βοΈ Risk/Reward: 0.35
π Trading Scenarios
Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:
π Scenario A: Pullback Entry (Conservative)
Best for: Patient swing traders seeking optimal risk/reward
Entry Conditions:
– Price pulls back to $60.41 (Sweet Spot) or $55.73 (Value Zone)
– Volume decreases on pullback (no panic selling)
– β οΈ Confirm OBV stabilizes before entry
Position Setup:
– Entry: $60.41 – $55.73
– Initial Target: $69.49 (breakout confirmation level)
– Extended Target: $70.86 (strong breakout level)
– Stop Loss: $45.69 (wide ATR-based stop)
– Why wide stop? Value entries need room for volatility at support levels; tight stops get shaken out by normal price action before bounce occurs
– Position Size: 75-100% (applies if/when price reaches this pullback entry zone)
Risk/Reward: ~0.62:1 to first target
Why This Works:
– Buying at historical support/value zone
– Better entry price = more cushion to downside
– Waiting for confirmation of support hold
π Scenario B: Breakout Entry (Momentum)
Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry
Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $69.49 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout
Position Setup:
– Entry: $69.49 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $69.14
– Initial Target: $70.86 (strong breakout – take 50% profit)
– Extended Target: $74.40 (momentum continuation – let 50% run)
– Stop Loss: $67.41 (3% below breakout entry)
– Why this stop? Breakout entries require tight stops at invalidation point; if price falls below breakout level, setup failed and we exit immediately
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)
Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to initial target
Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)
βΈοΈ Scenario C: Wait for Better Setup
Best for: Disciplined traders who wait for optimal entries
Current Situation:
– Price: $65.99 (in Caution Zone)
– Recommendation: Be Cautious
– Issue: Price near resistance – high rejection risk
Action Plan:
1. Add to watchlist – Don’t enter yet
2. Set alerts:
– Pullback alert at $60.41 (entry opportunity)
– Breakout alert at $69.49 (momentum confirmation)
3. Monitor for:
– Volume patterns (watch for accumulation vs distribution)
– Sector trends and correlations
– News catalysts or earnings reports
Wait For:
– Pullback to $60.41-$55.73 (better R/R), OR
– Confirmed breakout above $69.49 with volume
Why Wait:
– Current price offers poor risk/reward
– Better entries exist at defined levels
– Wait for better technical setup or fundamental catalyst
π Comprehensive Volume Analysis
Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure
π Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +201,109
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+201,109)
OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).
VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence
π‘ Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals
| Timeframe | Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day | Neutral | High | Immediate institutional positioning |
| 14-Day | Neutral | Medium | Swing accumulation/distribution |
| 30-Day | Neutral | Medium | Trend-level volume commitment |
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.
Volume Activity Metrics
β¬οΈ Relative Volume: 0.69x
vs. 20-Day Average: -30.6%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 0.99 (Neutral)
π‘ Volume Integration with Price Zones
Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High riskβinstitutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signalβinstitutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trendβlikely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warningβpotential reversal imminent
Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.
π Moving Average Cluster Analysis
Current MA Positioning
| MA Period | Price | Distance | Slope | Direction | Support Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA10 | $66.00 | +0.0% | +1.91% | π Rising | Strong |
| SMA20 | $64.23 | -2.7% | +2.38% | π Rising | Strong |
| SMA50 | $60.68 | -8.0% | +2.80% | π Rising | Strong |
| SMA200 | $43.67 | -33.8% | +1.78% | π Rising | Strong |
π― Detected MA Clusters
STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA20 + SMA10 converging at $65.12 (1.3% below current price)
– 2 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: STRONG
– Interpretation: Price above cluster support. Strong support zone if tested on pullback.
ποΈ Prioritized Pullback Targets
1οΈβ£ Primary Target: $65.12 (1.3% pullback)
- MA Level: UNKNOWN
- Probability: VERY_HIGH (Priority Score: 150)
- MA Characteristics: MA Cluster (SMA20, SMA10) – STRONG support
- Risk/Reward: Uncertain support, deep pullback required
- What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach
2οΈβ£ Secondary Target: $64.23 (2.7% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA20
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
- MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
3οΈβ£ Tertiary #1 Target: $60.68 (8.1% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA50
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 105)
- MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
4οΈβ£ Tertiary #2 Target: $43.67 (33.8% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA200
- Probability: MODERATE (Priority Score: 85)
- MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Strong support likely, moderate pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
π‘ Trading Recommendation
Action: Watch For Pullback
Confidence: VERY_HIGH
Primary Entry: $65.12 (MA Cluster: SMA20, SMA10 support)
Secondary Entry: $64.23 (SMA20 support)
Entry Strategy:
Watch for price action at $65.12 (-1.3% from current). Look for bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.).
Risk Management:
– Stop loss below primary target (suggest $63.82 range)
– Risk/Reward: Pullback plan: 0.6-0.8:1 (depends on exact entry within pullback range)
Confirmation Signals:
– Decreasing volume on pullback
– Bullish reversal candlestick at support level
– RSI oversold condition (<40)
– Higher volume on bounce
πΌ Investment Considerations
- π¦ Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $55.73 (value zone) to $52.29 (deep value) with wide stops ($45.69) to manage downside. Current price at $65.99 is 4.1% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
- β‘ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $69.49 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Biotechnology sector trends.
- π Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but KYMR’s high relative volatility (100th percentile) suggests bigger swingsβdiversify and stay cautious.
π¬ Methodology
This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies KYMR’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– π Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where KYMR historically breaks out or reverses, using 1255 days of data (since ~2021).
– π Volatility Adjustment: Compares KYMR’s 30-day volatility (75.1%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 100th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– β° Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– π Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.8% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– π Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– π Metrics: Daily Volatility (Ο) 4.73% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 1.3:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.
The analysis is robust (1255 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.
π’ About Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.
Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology
Kymera Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing novel small molecule therapeutics that selectively degrade disease-causing proteins by harnessing the body’s own natural protein degradation system. It engages in developing IRAK4 program, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of immunology-inflammation diseases, including hidradenitis suppurativa, atopic dermatitis, macrophage activation syndrome, general pustular psoriasis, and rheumato…
β οΈ Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like KYMR involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Report generated on December 03, 2025
