📈 CVNA Price Movement Analysis Report for Retail Investors

🏢 Company Overview

Carvana Co. | Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail

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This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for CVNA. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-03, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to CVNA’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

📊 Key Data Points

• Symbol: CVNA
• Analysis Date: 2025-12-03
• Current Price: $395.0
• 1-Month High: $401.55 (reached on 2025-12-03 00:00:00)
• Distance from High: 1.6%

📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

• Short-term (5 days): Strong rally (+10.5% in 5 days)
• Medium-term (3 months): Uptrend (+8.2% in 3 months)
• Long-term (12 months): Bull market (+54.9% in 12 months)

Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-11-26 00:00:00 to 2025-12-03, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: RISING at EXTREME pace.

📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).

Current RSI Status

🟢 Neutral Zone

Metric	Value	Interpretation
RSI (14-day)	67.8	Neutral
Signal	🟢 Neutral	RSI at 67.8 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity

Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for CVNA without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals

Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.

Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.

⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles (Nov 19 – Dec 03, 2025))

📊 Confluence Score: 1/4 (weak_microstructure_edge)

Signal	Status	Value
🔵 Range Compression	Normal	0.000
🔵 Volume Activity	Normal	0.000
🔵 Wick Patterns	4 upper rejections vs 0 lower absorptions – selling pressure at highs	4 rejections / 0 absorptions
🔵 Candlestick Patterns	2 patterns detected (below threshold)	2 patterns

Battle Dynamics: The confluence score of 1/4 indicates a weak microstructure edge, suggesting this is not a high-conviction setup. The lack of range compression and normal volume activity further supports a low probability of imminent, significant price movement.

Timing: Insufficient confluence for timing. Wait for additional confirmation signals.

Pattern Formation Timeline

Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Nov 26, Dec 02 (indecision)

Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Nov 21, Nov 26, Dec 01, Dec 02 (selling pressure)

Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles (Nov 19 – Dec 03, 2025) for timing signals.

📉 Volatility and Market Context

CVNA’s price movements are classified as “Very High (Small-caps, biotech)” with an annualized volatility of 111.3% and a typical daily price swing of 7.01% ($27.69). This means CVNA can move about 7.01% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.

• 🎯 Relative Volatility: CVNA’s current volatility ranks in the 100th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means CVNA’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 100% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
• 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $683.89, 1.8% above its 50-day moving average ($671.48). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.

Metric	Value	Explanation
📊 Stock Volatility	111.3% (annualized)	Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward
📅 Daily Volatility (σ)	7.01% ($27.69)	Typical 1-day move (std deviation) for context
🎯 Volatility vs. SPY	100th percentile	higher risk than the market
📈 Market Trend	neutral (1.8% vs. SMA50)	Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk.
⚖️ Current Setup R/R	0.15:1	Risk/Reward entering at current price (see RFC-008 section)

🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones

This analysis uses CVNA’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($401.55). These zones are adjusted for CVNA’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).

Zone	Distance (%)	Price Level	Trading Insight
🔴 Resistance	3.1	$389.1	Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely
🟡 Caution	7.8	$370.23	Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals
🟢 Sweet Spot	18.0	$329.27	Optimal buy zone with 57.0% success rate
💎 Value	28.2	$288.31	Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone
🔵 Deep Value	25.0	$301.16	Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts
⚠️ Extreme Value	30.0	$281.08	Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst
🚨 Crash Zone	>30%	Below extreme	Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor

📈 Historical Performance at This Exact Distance: When CVNA was specifically at 18.0% from its high (the sweet spot zone), it broke out to new all-time highs 57.0% of the time, with 28.0% crashing (−10%+). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 2.0:1 reward-to-risk (based on past breakouts from this zone).

Note: This measures outcomes at this specific distance. For broader success analysis across similar market contexts (not just distance), see Advanced Success Analysis below.

🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)

Scope Difference: Unlike the zone-specific breakout rate above (which only looks at exact distance from high), this analysis examines a BROADER set of similar market contexts—matching on trajectory, volume patterns, regime, and zone—not just distance. This explains why success rates may differ.

This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when CVNA was in similar price contexts:

📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 55.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress

📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 65.0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets

Metric	Value	Notes
Binary Success	55.0%	87 samples – moderate confidence
Graded Success	65.0%	87 samples – moderate confidence
Improvement	+10.0 points	Graded method captures partial gains

📊 Confidence Breakdown (53.9/100 – Medium):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 60.3 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.7/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.62)
– Consistency: 13.2/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes

🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 87 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 60.3 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 68.1% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 95.0% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)

📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $CVNA doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.

💰 Price Targets and Risk Management

These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on CVNA’s daily volatility (ATR).

Target Type	Price Level	Notes
🟢 Optimal Buy	$329.27	Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward.
🟢 Good Value	$288.31	Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback.
🟢 Deep Value	$301.16	Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news).

| 🔴 Reduce Position | $370.23 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $389.1 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $405.57 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $413.6 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 5-10% (Near resistance) (Current price) | Low confidence due to RESISTANCE_ZONE. |

Note: Stop-loss levels are shown within each trading scenario below, tailored to the specific entry strategy (value entries use wider ATR-based stops; breakout entries use tighter setup-specific stops below breakout level).

⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)

Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.

Risk/Reward Analysis

🔴 Quality Assessment: Poor (0.15:1)

Component	Value	Notes
Entry Price	$395.00	Current market price for CVNA
Target Price	$413.60	Projected resistance or breakout level
Stop Loss	$270.39	Risk management exit point
Potential Reward	$18.60	Target – Entry
Potential Risk	$124.61	Entry – Stop
R/R Ratio	0.15:1	Reward divided by Risk

Calculation Breakdown

Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)

Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $413.60 (target) – $395.00 (entry) = $18.60
2. Risk = $395.00 (entry) – $270.39 (stop) = $124.61
3. Ratio = $18.60 / $124.61 = 0.15:1

Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($270.39)
14-Day ATR: $20.22 (~5.1% of entry price) – stop is 6.2x ATR for volatility adjustment

💡 Interpretation

A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.

Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.15:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.15% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).

Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.

🎯 Current Analysis

Current Position: CVNA is in the RESISTANCE_ZONE at $395.0, 1.6% below its high

📋 Recommendation: REDUCE_OR_HEDGE

💡 Explanation: Price in RESISTANCE_ZONE with favorable historical performance (55% breakout rate). rising with momentum.

🔍 Confidence: LOW

📈 Historical Success: 0.65

⚖️ Risk/Reward: 0.15

📋 Trading Scenarios

Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:

📉 Scenario A: Pullback Entry (Conservative)

Best for: Patient swing traders seeking optimal risk/reward

Entry Conditions:
– Price pulls back to $329.27 (Sweet Spot) or $288.31 (Value Zone)
– Volume decreases on pullback (no panic selling)
– ⚠️ Confirm OBV stabilizes before entry

Position Setup:
– Entry: $329.27 – $288.31
– Initial Target: $405.57 (breakout confirmation level)
– Extended Target: $413.60 (strong breakout level)
– Stop Loss: $215.01 (wide ATR-based stop)
– Why wide stop? Value entries need room for volatility at support levels; tight stops get shaken out by normal price action before bounce occurs
– Position Size: 75-100% (applies if/when price reaches this pullback entry zone)

Risk/Reward: ~0.67:1 to first target

Why This Works:
– Buying at historical support/value zone
– Better entry price = more cushion to downside
– Waiting for confirmation of support hold

🚀 Scenario B: Breakout Entry (Momentum)

Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry

Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $405.57 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout

Position Setup:
– Entry: $405.57 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $403.54
– Initial Target: $413.60 (strong breakout – take 50% profit)
– Extended Target: $434.28 (momentum continuation – let 50% run)
– Stop Loss: $393.40 (3% below breakout entry)
– Why this stop? Breakout entries require tight stops at invalidation point; if price falls below breakout level, setup failed and we exit immediately
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)

Risk/Reward: ~0.7:1 to initial target

Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)

⏸️ Scenario C: Wait for Better Setup

Best for: Disciplined traders who wait for optimal entries

Current Situation:
– Price: $395.00 (in Resistance Zone)
– Recommendation: Reduce Or Hedge
– Issue: Price near resistance – high rejection risk

Action Plan:
1. Add to watchlist – Don’t enter yet
2. Set alerts:
– Pullback alert at $329.27 (entry opportunity)
– Breakout alert at $405.57 (momentum confirmation)
3. Monitor for:
– Volume patterns (watch for accumulation vs distribution)
– Sector trends and correlations
– News catalysts or earnings reports

Wait For:
– Pullback to $329.27-$288.31 (better R/R), OR
– Confirmed breakout above $405.57 with volume

Why Wait:
– Current price offers poor risk/reward
– Better entries exist at defined levels
– Wait for better technical setup or fundamental catalyst

📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis

Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure

📈 Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +16,326,918
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+16,326,918)

OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).

VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence

🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals

Timeframe	Signal	Weight	Interpretation
5-Day	Neutral	High	Immediate institutional positioning
14-Day	Neutral	Medium	Swing accumulation/distribution
30-Day	Neutral	Medium	Trend-level volume commitment

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.

Volume Activity Metrics

➡️ Relative Volume: 1.11x
vs. 20-Day Average: +10.6%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 1.00 (Neutral)

ℹ️ Volume-Price Divergence Analysis

Severity: Mild
Type: Bullish Confirmation (confidence +5%)

Signals:
– ✅ Mild bullish confirmation: Price and OBV both rising

Divergences between price and volume can signal potential reversals or continuations. Monitor closely for confirmation.

💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones

Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent

Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.

📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis

Current MA Positioning

MA Period	Price	Distance	Slope	Direction	Support Quality
SMA10	$351.93	-10.9%	+8.61%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA20	$333.88	-15.5%	+4.32%	📈 Rising	Strong
SMA50	$345.51	-12.5%	-0.19%	➡️ Flat	–
SMA200	$306.08	-22.5%	+0.83%	📈 Rising	Moderate

🎯 Detected MA Clusters

STRONG Cluster Detected:
– SMA50 + SMA10 converging at $348.72 (11.7% below current price)
– 2 moving averages within 3% range
– Cluster strength: STRONG
– Interpretation: Price above cluster support. Strong support zone if tested on pullback.

🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets

1️⃣ Primary Target: $348.72 (11.7% pullback)

• MA Level: UNKNOWN
• Probability: VERY_HIGH (Priority Score: 140)
• MA Characteristics: MA Cluster (SMA50, SMA10) – STRONG support
• Risk/Reward: Uncertain support, deep pullback required
• What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach

2️⃣ Secondary Target: $351.93 (10.9% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA10
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125)
• MA Characteristics: SMA10 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $333.88 (15.5% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA20
• Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 115)
• MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
• Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

4️⃣ Tertiary #2 Target: $306.08 (22.5% pullback)

• MA Level: SMA200
• Probability: LOW (Priority Score: 70)
• MA Characteristics: SMA200 support – rising moderate
• Risk/Reward: High-confidence support if reached, but large pullback required
• What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume

💡 Trading Recommendation

Action: Watch For Pullback
Confidence: HIGH
Primary Entry: $348.72 (MA Cluster: SMA50, SMA10 support)
Secondary Entry: $351.93 (SMA10 support)

Entry Strategy:
Watch for price action at $348.72 (-11.7% from current). Look for volume decrease and bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.).

Risk Management:
– Stop loss below primary target (suggest $341.75 range)
– Risk/Reward: Pullback plan: 0.7-1.0:1 (depends on exact entry within pullback range)

Confirmation Signals:
– Decreasing volume on pullback
– Bullish reversal candlestick at support level
– RSI oversold condition (<40)
– Higher volume on bounce

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💼 Investment Considerations

• 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $288.31 (value zone) to $301.16 (deep value) with wide stops ($215.01) to manage downside. Current price at $395.0 is 1.6% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
• ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $405.57 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Specialty Retail sector trends.
• 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but CVNA’s high relative volatility (100th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.

🔬 Methodology

This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies CVNA’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where CVNA historically breaks out or reverses, using 1255 days of data (since ~2021).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares CVNA’s 30-day volatility (111.3%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 100th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.8% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Daily Volatility (σ) 7.01% typical 1-day move. Uses 14-Day ATR for volatility-adjusted stop-losses (RFC-011). Historical sweet spot entries averaged 2.0:1 reward-to-risk; current R/R from today’s price shown in Risk/Reward section below.

The analysis is robust (1255 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.

🏢 About Carvana Co.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail

Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company’s platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company’s 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like CVNA involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Report generated on December 03, 2025