📈 ECPG Price Movement Analysis Report for Retail Investors
🏢 Company Overview
Encore Capital Group, Inc. | Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Financial – Mortgages
This report provides a simplified overview of the adaptive price movement analysis for ECPG. Using historical price data up to 2025-12-01, it identifies stock-specific trading zones based on distances from 1-month highs, tailored to ECPG’s unique behavior. The analysis accounts for volatility relative to the S&P 500, recent price patterns, and broader market trends. This is not financial advice—always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
📊 Key Data Points
- Symbol: ECPG
- Analysis Date: 2025-12-01
- Current Price: $51.89
- 1-Month High: $52.47 (reached on 2025-11-28 00:00:00)
- Distance from High: 1.1%
📈 Price Trajectory (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
- Short-term (5 days): Strong rally (+5.3% in 5 days)
- Medium-term (3 months): Strong uptrend (+16.7% in 3 months)
- Long-term (12 months): Uptrend (+5.8% in 12 months)
Interpretation: The short-term shows immediate momentum from 2025-11-21 00:00:00 to 2025-12-01, while medium and long-term trends reveal the broader price structure. Current overall direction: MIXED at FAST pace.
📊 RSI Momentum Indicator (RFC-008 Phase 2)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0-100 scale using 14-period Wilder’s smoothing. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions (potential pullback), while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions (potential bounce).
Current RSI Status
🟢 Neutral Zone
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 67.1 | Neutral |
| Signal | 🟢 Neutral | RSI at 67.1 – no extreme conditions, normal market activity |
Trading Implication: RSI between 30-70 indicates normal market conditions for ECPG without extreme momentum. This is:
– Ideal for swing trading setups using price zones
– Less likely to experience immediate reversals
– Good time to wait for clear directional signals
Strategy: Focus on price zone positions and volume confirmation rather than momentum extremes.
Methodology: Classic Wilder’s smoothing algorithm – first period uses simple average of 14-day gains/losses, subsequent periods apply exponential smoothing (prior_avg × 13 + current) / 14 for momentum continuity.
⏱️ Microstructure Timing Signals (Last 10 Candles)
📊 Confluence Score: 1/4 (weak_microstructure_edge)
| Signal | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Range Compression | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Volume Activity | Normal | 0.000 |
| 🔵 Wick Patterns | 3 upper rejections vs 1 lower absorptions – selling pressure at highs | 3 rejections / 1 absorptions |
| 🔵 Candlestick Patterns | 1 patterns detected (below threshold) | 1 patterns |
Battle Dynamics: Balanced battle between bulls and bears (3 rejections vs 1 absorptions).
Timing: Insufficient confluence for timing. Wait for additional confirmation signals.
Pattern Formation Timeline
Candlestick Patterns Detected:
– 🔵 Spinning Top: Nov 26 (indecision)
Wick Events:
– ⬆️ Upper Rejections: Nov 20, Nov 24, Nov 28 (selling pressure)
– ⬇️ Lower Absorptions: Nov 26 (buying support)
Microstructure analysis examines the last 10 candles for timing signals.
📉 Volatility and Market Context
ECPG’s price movements are classified as “High (Growth stocks, small-caps)” with an annualized volatility of 38.5% and a typical daily price swing of 2.43% ($1.26). This means ECPG can move about 2.43% daily, which is high compared to other stocks.
- 🎯 Relative Volatility: ECPG’s current volatility ranks in the 77.0th percentile compared to the historical volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY). This means ECPG’s price swings are larger than those of the broader market on 77.0% of historical trading days, indicating higher risk than the market.
- 🌍 Market Environment: The analysis identifies a neutral market, with the S&P 500 (SPY) trading at $683.39, 1.9% above its 50-day moving average ($670.44). Bear markets increase selling pressure, requiring wider safety margins.
| Metric | Value | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 📊 Stock Volatility | 38.5% (annualized) | Yearly price fluctuations; higher means more risk/reward |
| 📅 Daily Movement | 2.43% ($1.26) | Typical daily price change for stop-loss levels |
| 🎯 Volatility vs. SPY | 77.0th percentile | higher risk than the market |
| 📈 Market Trend | neutral (1.9% vs. SMA50) | Challenging market conditions; zones are wider to account for higher risk. |
🎯 Price-Based Trading Zones
This analysis uses ECPG’s historical price patterns to define trading zones based on percentage distances from its 1-month high ($52.47). These zones are adjusted for ECPG’s high volatility (widened for larger swings), recent price behavior (emphasizing data from the last ~3.4 years), and the neutral market environment (wider near-high zones). The zones are based on 55 historical reversal points (21 resistance, 34 support), with recent patterns weighted more heavily (average weight: 0.11).
| Zone | Distance (%) | Price Level | Trading Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Resistance | 1.1 | $51.89 | Avoid buying; strong selling pressure likely |
| 🟡 Caution | 2.7 | $51.05 | Reduce positions or hedge; watch for reversals |
| 🟢 Sweet Spot | 4.8 | $49.95 | Optimal buy zone with 35.0% success rate |
| 💎 Value | 7.0 | $48.8 | Attractive buy on pullback; strong bounce zone |
| 🔵 Deep Value | 12.0 | $46.17 | Potential reversal, but risky; confirm with catalysts |
| ⚠️ Extreme Value | 13.6 | $45.33 | Severe oversold; high crash risk—wait for catalyst |
| 🚨 Crash Zone | >30% | Below extreme | Critical danger zone—avoid unless deep value investor |
📈 Historical Performance: At the optimal distance (4.8% from high), ECPG has historically broken out (made new highs) 35.0% of the time, with a 30.0% chance of crashing (dropping 10%+). The risk/reward ratio is 1.2:1, making the sweet spot favorable.
🎯 Advanced Success Analysis (RFC-011 Phase 2)
This analysis uses two methods to measure historical success when ECPG was in similar price contexts:
📊 Binary Success (Traditional Method)
– What it measures: Did the stock reach NEW all-time highs?
– Rate: 55.0%
– Limitation: All-or-nothing – ignores partial progress
📈 Graded Success (Enhanced Method)
– What it measures: Progress toward the next high, with partial credit:
– 🟢 100% = Made new high (full success)
– 🟡 85% = Reached 85% of the way to new high
– 🟡 75% = Reached 75% of the way
– 🟠 50% = Reached halfway point
– 🔴 25% = Made 25% progress
– ❌ 0% = No progress or declined
– Rate: 65.0%
– Advantage: Shows favorable risk/reward even with conservative targets
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Binary Success | 55.0% | 430 samples – moderate confidence |
| Graded Success | 65.0% | 430 samples – moderate confidence |
| Improvement | +10.0 points | Graded method captures partial gains |
📊 Confidence Breakdown (47.6/100 – Low):
– Sample Size: 40/40 points – Based on 317.8 weighted samples
– Quality: 0.1/40 points – Average similarity and recency (0.59)
– Consistency: 7.5/20 points – Low variance = predictable outcomes
🔍 Sample Quality & Reliability:
– Total Samples: 430 similar historical contexts
– Effective Samples: 317.8 (weighted by recency)
– Recent Data: 37.5% from last 3 years
– Raw Rate: 85.3% (before adjustments)
– Cap Applied: Yes (55.0% max prevents overconfidence)
📊 What This Means: The graded success rate of 65.0% vs binary 55.0% (improvement: +10.0pp) shows that even when $ECPG doesn’t make new highs, it often makes significant partial progress (50-85% of the way), indicating favorable risk/reward even with conservative price targets.
💰 Price Targets and Risk Management
These price levels translate the percentage zones into actionable dollar amounts, with stop-loss suggestions based on ECPG’s daily volatility (ATR).
| Target Type | Price Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Optimal Buy | $49.95 | Enter in sweet spot for best risk/reward. |
| 🟢 Good Value | $48.8 | Strong buy opportunity on deeper pullback. |
| 🟢 Deep Value | $46.17 | Oversold; wait for reversal signals (e.g., high volume, news). |
| 🔴 Reduce Position | $51.05 | In caution zone—scale back exposure. |
| 🔴 Exit/Hedge | $51.89 | Near resistance—consider selling or hedging. |
| 🚀 Breakout Confirmation | $52.99 | 1% above high—signals new uptrend. |
| 🚀 Strong Breakout | $54.04 | 3% above high—confirms bullish momentum. |
| 🛡️ Tight Stop | $48.74 | -$3.15 (6.1%) below current price. |
| 🛡️ Normal Stop | $46.22 | -$5.67 (10.9%) below current price. |
| 🛡️ Wide Stop | $43.71 | -$8.18 (15.8%) below current price. |
| 📊 Position Sizing | 5-10% (Caution zone) | Low confidence due to CAUTION_ZONE. |
⚖️ Risk/Reward Methodology (RFC-008 Phase 5)
Transparent breakdown of risk/reward calculation using current price, target price projection, and volatility-adjusted stop loss.
Risk/Reward Analysis
🔴 Quality Assessment: Poor (0.56:1)
| Component | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Price | $51.89 | Current market price for ECPG |
| Target Price | $55.09 | Projected resistance or breakout level |
| Stop Loss | $46.22 | Risk management exit point |
| Potential Reward | $3.20 | Target – Entry |
| Potential Risk | $5.67 | Entry – Stop |
| R/R Ratio | 0.56:1 | Reward divided by Risk |
Calculation Breakdown
Formula: (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop)
Step-by-step:
1. Reward = $55.09 (target) – $51.89 (entry) = $3.20
2. Risk = $51.89 (entry) – $46.22 (stop) = $5.67
3. Ratio = $3.20 / $5.67 = 0.56:1
Stop Loss Determination: Normal stop level ($46.22)
14-Day ATR: $4.98 (used for volatility-adjusted stop placement)
💡 Interpretation
A ratio below 1.0:1 is poor – you’re risking more than potential reward. Avoid this trade setup unless conviction is extremely high.
Position Sizing Guidance: With a 0.56:1 R/R ratio, if you risk 1% of portfolio capital, you target 0.56% potential gain. Adjust position size so that hitting the stop loss = acceptable portfolio loss (typically 0.5-2% per trade).
Important: This R/R calculation assumes execution at entry price and hitting either target or stop. Actual results may vary with slippage, partial exits, or trailing stops.
🎯 Current Analysis
Current Position: ECPG is in the CAUTION_ZONE at $51.89, 1.1% below its high
📋 Recommendation: BE_CAUTIOUS
💡 Explanation: Price in CAUTION_ZONE with favorable historical performance (55% breakout rate).
🔍 Confidence: LOW
📈 Historical Success: 0.65
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 2.65
📋 Trading Scenarios
Based on current price position and technical setup, here are actionable trade scenarios with defined entries, targets, and stops:
📉 Scenario A: Pullback Entry (Conservative)
Best for: Patient swing traders seeking optimal risk/reward
Entry Conditions:
– Price pulls back to $49.95 (Sweet Spot) or $48.80 (Value Zone)
– Volume decreases on pullback (no panic selling)
– ⚠️ Confirm OBV stabilizes before entry
Position Setup:
– Entry: $49.95 – $48.80
– Initial Target: $55.64 (resistance zone)
– Extended Target: $58.29 (breakout area)
– Stop Loss: $43.71 (below value zone)
– Position Size: 75-100% (high confidence zone)
Risk/Reward: ~0.8:1 to first target
Why This Works:
– Buying at historical support/value zone
– Better entry price = more cushion to downside
– Waiting for confirmation of support hold
🚀 Scenario B: Breakout Entry (Momentum)
Best for: Momentum traders wanting confirmation before entry
Entry Conditions:
– Price breaks above $52.99 (1% above high)
– Volume expands (>1.5x average) on breakout day
– Price holds above breakout level for 2+ hours (avoid false breakout)
– Verify OBV rises with breakout
Position Setup:
– Entry: $52.99 (on confirmation) or first pullback to $52.73
– Initial Target: $55.64 (5% extension)
– Extended Target: $59.35 (measured move)
– Stop Loss: $51.40 (below breakout level)
– Position Size: 50-75% (momentum play with confirmation)
Risk/Reward: ~1.6:1 to first target
Why This Works:
– Breakout confirms new uptrend beginning
– Volume expansion validates institutional participation
– Clear invalidation point (breakdown below breakout)
⏸️ Scenario D: Wait for Better Setup
Best for: Disciplined traders who wait for optimal entries
Current Situation:
– Price: $51.89 (in Caution Zone)
– Recommendation: Be Cautious
– Issue: Price near resistance – high rejection risk
Action Plan:
1. Add to watchlist – Don’t enter yet
2. Set alerts:
– Pullback alert at $49.95 (entry opportunity)
– Breakout alert at $52.99 (momentum confirmation)
3. Monitor for:
– Volume patterns (watch for accumulation vs distribution)
– Sector trends and correlations
– News catalysts or earnings reports
Wait For:
– Pullback to $49.95-$48.80 (better R/R), OR
– Confirmed breakout above $52.99 with volume
Why Wait:
– Current price offers poor risk/reward
– Better entries exist at defined levels
– Patience will be rewarded with 2:1+ setups
📊 Comprehensive Volume Analysis
Volume analysis provides institutional-level insights into supply and demand dynamics. This advanced analysis combines multiple volume indicators to identify accumulation, distribution, and potential divergences.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Cumulative Volume Pressure
📈 Current Trend: Up
10-Day Net Change: +509,957
Interpretation: Bullish – OBV rising over 10 days (+509,957)
OBV tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Rising OBV with price suggests healthy accumulation; falling OBV with rising price may indicate distribution (bearish divergence).
VWAP Multi-Timeframe Confluence
🟡 Confluence Signal: Mixed Signals
| Timeframe | Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day | Neutral | High | Immediate institutional positioning |
| 14-Day | Neutral | Medium | Swing accumulation/distribution |
| 30-Day | Neutral | Medium | Trend-level volume commitment |
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price paid by institutions. Price above VWAP with accumulation suggests bullish control; below VWAP with distribution indicates bearish pressure.
Volume Activity Metrics
⬇️ Relative Volume: 0.46x
vs. 20-Day Average: -53.8%
Recent Volume Spikes: 0 in last 30 days
Quality Ratio: 0.99 (Distribution)
💡 Volume Integration with Price Zones
Combining volume analysis with price-based zones enhances decision accuracy:
– Near Resistance + Distribution: High risk—institutions may be selling into strength
– Value Zone + Accumulation: Strong buy signal—institutions building positions
– Breakout + High Volume: Confirms new trend—likely to sustain
– Price Divergence + Volume Divergence: Critical warning—potential reversal imminent
Use volume to validate price zone recommendations and improve entry/exit timing.
📊 Moving Average Cluster Analysis
Current MA Positioning
| MA Period | Price | Distance | Slope | Direction | Support Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA10 | $49.51 | -4.6% | +1.92% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
| SMA20 | $47.75 | -8.0% | +4.10% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
| SMA50 | $44.85 | -13.6% | +1.31% | 📈 Rising | Strong |
| SMA200 | $40.09 | -22.7% | +0.02% | ➡️ Flat | – |
🎯 Detected MA Clusters
No significant MA clusters detected. Moving averages are well-distributed, suggesting clear individual support/resistance levels rather than convergence zones.
🎚️ Prioritized Pullback Targets
1️⃣ Primary Target: $49.51 (4.6% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA10
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 135/100)
- MA Characteristics: SMA10 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Price action at this level, volume decrease on approach
2️⃣ Secondary Target: $47.75 (8.0% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA20
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 125/100)
- MA Characteristics: SMA20 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
3️⃣ Tertiary #1 Target: $44.85 (13.6% pullback)
- MA Level: SMA50
- Probability: HIGH (Priority Score: 105/100)
- MA Characteristics: SMA50 support – rising strong
- Risk/Reward: Excellent support likely, minimal pullback distance
- What to Watch: Major trend reversal signal if tested, significantly increased volume
💡 Trading Recommendation
Action: Watch For Pullback
Confidence: HIGH
Primary Entry: $49.51 (UNKNOWN support)
Secondary Entry: $47.75 (UNKNOWN support)
Entry Strategy:
Watch for price action at $49.51 (-4.6% from current). Look for bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.).
Risk Management:
– Stop loss below primary target (suggest $48.52 range)
– Risk/Reward: Risk assessment unavailable
Confirmation Signals:
– Decreasing volume on pullback
– Bullish reversal candlestick at support level
– RSI oversold condition (<40)
– Higher volume on bounce
💼 Investment Considerations
- 🏦 Long-Term Investors: Consider entry points near $48.8 (value zone) to $46.17 (deep value) with wide stops ($43.71) to manage downside. Current price at $51.89 is 1.1% below high. Monitor upcoming earnings or sector news for catalysts.
- ⚡ Short-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout above $52.99 or a confirmed bounce in the deep value zone. Track Financial – Mortgages sector trends.
- 🌍 Market Context: The neutral market supports potential upside, but ECPG’s high relative volatility (77.0th percentile) suggests bigger swings—diversify and stay cautious.
🔬 Methodology
This analysis uses the Adaptive Peak Distance Analyzer, a proprietary tool that studies ECPG’s historical price movements to identify optimal trading zones. It calculates:
– 📊 Price Zones: Based on distances from 52-week highs where ECPG historically breaks out or reverses, using 1254 days of data (since ~2021).
– 📈 Volatility Adjustment: Compares ECPG’s 30-day volatility (38.5%) to SPY’s historical distribution, ranking at the 77.0th percentile, widening zones for safety.
– ⏰ Time Decay: Weights recent price reversals (~3.4 years) more heavily (average weight: 0.11) to reflect current behavior.
– 🌍 Market Regime: Adjusts zones based on SPY’s position (1.9% vs. 50-day SMA), wider near-high zones.
– 📊 Volume Analysis: When available, integrates volume profile analysis including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and volume-price divergence patterns to validate price movements and identify institutional accumulation/distribution.
– 📏 Metrics: Uses ATR (2.43%) for stop-losses and risk/reward ratios (1.2:1 at sweet spot).
The analysis is robust (1254 samples, “High (Robust dataset)” quality) but focuses on price patterns and volume trends, not fundamental analysis. For broader context, check financial news or analyst reports.
🏢 About Encore Capital Group, Inc.
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Financial – Mortgages
Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery. It is also involved in the provision of early stage collection, business process outsourcing, and contingent coll…
⚠️ Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks like ECPG involves risks, including loss of principal. The analysis relies on historical price data and may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Report generated on December 01, 2025
